Change is in the air.

It always is in the NFL this time of year. It's the unfortunate reality of the holiday season for NFL coaches and execs, and the sad reality this year is that with so many pro teams and major college programs making in-season changes -- and incredibly early in-season changes at that -- it's hard not to wonder if the January carnage will run historically deep.

When both the University of Miami and the Dolphins are launching coaching searches well before Thanksgiving -- when the Dolphins can barely wait for September to close before firing a head coach and then spread their coordinator firings across three months -- then it's difficult not to worry about what's next in a copycat league.

In the end, the revolving door might just end up swinging about as wildly as it usually does -- 6-7 head coaching changes -- though the rate of turnover within front offices continues to surge and that could well be on the uptick again. When franchises as staid and conservative as the Lions terminate their longtime team president and loyal general manager in mid-season, well, let's just say people take notice. There is plenty of squirming going on around the league as teams play out the string and owners and their advisors contemplate what is next.

Will Sean Payton wind up in South Florida next season? (USATSI)

For as much as clubs will try to sell you that an in-season firing buys them additional time to get a jump on the competition as far as hiring the next guy, it rarely works that way and none of the many teams mulling changes seem particularly ahead of the game as it pertains to the hiring process. With so few "it guys" or hot coordinators, they'll all end up fighting over the same shallow pool of talent in all likelihood, with some of the coaches just fired invariably not given sufficient time to establish themselves in the first place. And on and on it goes. But it is coming, and here's how things may be shaping up at the various hotspots with the regular season now just two weeks from expiring.

Atlanta Falcons 
Rookie head coach Dan Quinn isn't going anywhere and he already carries considerable power. But addressing the years of personnel issues is in order and it's difficult to see owner Arthur Blank not making a front office move. He's come very close to doing it in recent years and his frustration level has been on the rise and Quinn has some very strong ties to two of the more coveted personnel men this offseason -- Minnesota exec George Payton and Seattle's Trent Kirchner. I'd frankly be shocked if Blank doesn't end up hiring one of these two men to work with Quinn to meld the vision of this franchise moving forward.

Buffalo Bills 
The team looks uglier by the week and the dysfunction between the coaching staff and front office has only grown. Owner Terry Pegula, like Blank, came very close to firing his GM a year ago and there are only more people he trusts telling him now to do just that. Rex Ryan hasn't exactly endeared himself, either, but he just got there and inherited Whaley and he reports directly to the owner and not to the GM. Sure, Rex may be just nine months or so from being firmly on the hot seat himself if the team continues to regress amid selfish and undisciplined play, but Whaley is in the middle of things right now and there isn't a lot for him to hang his hat on right now with some bold moves now really under scrutiny. Pegula has been dabbling with hiring a football czar to oversee the GM for a while anyway, and that may come to pass this winter as well in conjunction with a new general manager. The staggered starts to some of these regimes -- coach inherits an imperiled GM, or vice versa -- rarely seem to work well, or for long.

Cleveland Browns 
Owner Jimmy Haslam is looking for ways to save something of his latest coaching/front office Frankenstein, with another lost season and continued infighting and a dysfunctional culture that seems incapable to sustaining winning. Some believe maybe he finds a way to keep GM Ray Farmer around in some other capacity, but the run of brutal personnel decisions may render that impossible. Coach Mike Pettine talks more each week like a guy daring his owner to fire him, and while perhaps a strong finish by Johnny Manziel saves some of the offensive staff there, it's hard to imagine a scenario where Pettine survives. This job has been increasingly devalued and Haslam's reputation in the coaching community is poor. No one wins here and the team is bereft of talent in a very tough division. Money always talks, and maybe Haslam's relationship with agent Jimmy Sexton lands him one of his prize clients, though I'm not sure I see it going that way. There is a push among some on that organization for a young, aggressive, forward-thinking, analytics-loving coach -- I believe they thought they were getting that in Pettine -- and while there has been chatter in personnel circles about rising Green Bay star Eliot Wolf as the possible GM in Cleveland, I'm not buying he leaves that relative utopia for this "opportunity."

Detroit Lions 
They fired their GM a while back and I fully expect them to embark on a head coaching search as well. Former stud GM Ernie Accorsi is consulting for them in their search and he is very high on Bears offensive coordinator Adam Gase, among others. Coaches love this job because of the history and the presence of a quarterback in Matthew Stafford and the fact the Lions still offer a full pension doesn't hurt, either. Minnesota exec George Payton is a strong possible GM hire here and he already knows the division very well. Given all the changes there, and the events of the past few weeks in particular, I have a hard time seeing any way Jim Caldwell remains as head coach. Defensive coordinator Teryl Austin perhaps gets some consideration. He's viewed as a head coach in progress and interviewed very well a year ago.

Indianapolis Colts 
Chuck Pagano has known it's highly, highly unlikely he's back as head coach in 2016 since last spring. Even winning the lowly AFC South isn't going to change that now, and the only real question is whether owner Jim Irsay opts to blow up his entire regime in football operations, too. The Colts don't even control their own destiny in terms of that division after Sunday's troubling loss to Houston, and their long winning streak against division foes seems like a thing of the distant past, now. Like Miami owner Stephen Ross, Irsay is the kind of guy who would deal for a Sean Payton. He feels like his team is on the cusp of the Super Bowl (maybe multiple titles under Andrew Luck) and so what are a few pesky draft picks if that's where you're coming from? Anything is possible with this guy. Payton isn't going there without being able to bring his own GM with him. I don't see Irsay luring any luminaries out of top college programs (Nick Saban, Urban Meyer), but I do know he's going want his pound of flesh for how this season has gone (even if, you know, he created the toxic climate himself this offseason with his words and deeds). The considerable allure of Andrew Luck makes this job very appealing to top coordinator candidates, though I'd be shocked to see the Patriots' Josh McDaniels consider it. Pagano deserves better than how this entire thing has played out and he should merit at least an interview or two elsewhere for head coaching gigs.

Jacksonville Jaguars 
One could make the case for change here, with the Jags again near the bottom of one of the worst divisions in football. But Shad Khan seems generally OK with the baby steps they are taking and Blake Bortles has thrown a lot of touchdowns and he seems very much interested in seeing this Gus Bradley/Dave Caldwell thing work. The owner's son, Tony, is very involved with the day to day stuff and seems to still be a champion of this coach/GM pairing and it would seem like next year may be the make-or-break year for them. However, failing to be more of a factor in their dismal division with Marcus Mariota a rookie and Andrew Luck pretty much hurt all year probably isn't the best indicator for them. Other owners may have pulled the plug on this thing long ago, but Khan doesn't seem to roll that way.

Houston Texans 
Owner Bob McNair may need to further sort out some roles and deviate from what the franchise had been doing in the decision-making process, but this team has come on strong after a brutal first six weeks or so and is now in position to win the division. Bill O'Brien and Rick Smith as a long-term marriage will remain in question, but the second-half tear has everyone in the organization feeling better about the arrangements.

Miami Dolphins 
There are some in that organization who have the ear of owner Stephen Ross who are advising him to keep interim coach Dan Campbell. I have a very difficult time believing he doesn't listen to some of the many other people who have his ear and do what he can to land a big fish head coach -- primarily trading for Saints coach Sean Payton. I've heard rumblings in the last week Ross might be finally ready to make a clean sweep of his front office and start all over, though I think it's more likely he keeps Mike Tannenbaum atop football operations there. The rub is that to get a guy like Payton he would likely have to revamp his entire building, even though Payton and Tannenbaum are both products of the Bill Parcells family tree. Parcells is high on Steelers coordinator Todd Haley, who has done masterful things in Pittsburgh, and I would keep a close eye on former Lions head coach Jim Schwartz, who is also from the Parcells/Bill Belichick tree and who did good things with Ndamukong Suh in Detroit. Many figure the Dolphins change GMs regardless -- it's a nominal title anyway given that Tannenbaum is running the show in personnel -- with the candidates depending on the coach attached to them. Ross is also getting high recommendations on Bears coordinator Adam Gase and Patriots coordinator Josh McDaniels. Bottom line with Ross is he has never really been able to get the rock star coaches he's coveted -- be they John Harbaugh or Jeff Fisher -- and I have a hard time seeing him hiring another coordinator with no head coach experience. The guy he shoulda hired in that regard a long time ago -- Todd Bowles, his former interim head coach -- now haunts him with the Jets. He has to get this right. He's desperate enough to deal a few picks for Payton and he might need that type of guru to make something out of Ryan Tannehill.

New Orleans Saints 
If there is value out there for Payton in trade, I expect them to pursue it. It has been 10 years, they are likely going to be trimming some payroll and trying to get budgets back in order and this just feels like the end of an era. Payton has done more than anyone could have expected in New Orleans and while it holds a special place in his heart, battling back from Katrina, all things must come to an end. They need draft picks and young, cheap talent. If Payton stays, they could restructure from within and I'd also expect to see former assistant Joe Lombardi brought back into the fold as well.

New York Giants  
This ownership group is nothing if not loyal and this team is hardly the most talented and, yes, falling short in the weak NFC East is troubling … but I'm just not sure Tom Coughlin goes unless he's ready to go. Sure, maybe he gets cajoled a bit into retirement, but I also don't see too many guys out there the Mara family looks at as an upgrade. Payton has obvious strong Giants ties, but this family isn't trading picks for a coach and Payton might not be corporate enough for them in this capacity, anyway. Both of their coordinators would likely merit some consideration, too. Ultimately, I believe Coughlin will have a lot of say in the matter and if I had to bet it would be against them making a major personnel shake-up, either. There aren't two-time Super Bowl winning coaches hanging out on the corner. Sunday's near-comeback over Carolina -- and the near-win over a then-unbeaten New England -- probably cut both ways but I'm guessing nudge things towards stay the course.

St. Louis Rams 
Stan Kroenke isn't about paying people to leave, much less paying them $7M to leave. Not for a team he is desperate to move and not at a time when he may well be stuck as a lame duck back in St. Louis, anyway. Now, GM Les Snead has an expiring contract and if anything maybe Kroenke ponders a move in that regard, though in general I doubt it. Many of the Rams assistants -- most in fact -- have expiring contracts as well, so there could certainly be changes there. But I don't see any huge moves coming from this owner at this time. Fisher's first four years have been disappointing and the inability to find a quarterback has haunted them, but the coach has found another patient owner after his long stint in Tennessee. Kroenke, frankly, has bigger fish to fry these days.

San Diego Chargers 
GM Tom Telesco quietly received a three-year extension before the season and he is not going anywhere. Ownership will make a decision on coach Mike McCoy after the season but it doesn't sound promising, especially as they continue to push for a move to Los Angeles. Shaking things up after falling far below expectations – although with injuries having much to do with that – seems to be the way this thing is leaning. Chargers are another team that would seem to need to hire an experienced former NFL coach and finding some sizzle to bring with them to Los Angeles will likely be part of the equation as well. Payton would fit the bill, though I'm not sure I see this team trading picks to land a coach. Might be time for them to go to the defensive side of the ledger if they do make the move.

San Francisco 49ers 
They just did their big move a year ago by pushing Jim Harbaugh out and they surprised many around the league by limiting the role of influential front office exec Paraag Marathe recently. That's probably the extent of the moves. Marathe is exceedingly close to owner Jed York and the implication here seems to be that getting him out of football operations in anything but a cap/money capacity was throwing the fans a bone during a season in which they can only dream of the heights they achieved under Harbaugh. Coach Jim Tomsula and GM Trent Baalke are very highly thought of by the Yorks and they have been loyal warriors for them and despite the course of this season I'd wager they stand pat.

Tennessee Titans 
This is a highly-coveted job. Top offensive coordinators love them some Marcus Mariota, and while the unsettled ownership situation isn't enthralling, this team is enough of a blank slate to have people very interested. Rumblings persist of Peyton Manning in a team president role along with his old buddy Bill Polian, which could include Gase or Doug Marrone as head coach. McDaniels would be very interested if the Titans made the right kind of approach. General manager Ruston Webster has been dangling in the wind since he wasn't a part of the decision to fire coach Ken Whisenhunt very early in the season. His status for 2016 has always been in jeopardy. They can land a top coach here and it would frankly take some doing to screw it up. The division stinks, you can get better right away and you might have the first overall pick at a time when you don't need a quarterback -- so perhaps you pull off an RG3-type trade and load up on picks. The Manning stuff might all be beyond premature -- though our CBS cameras caught him and Polian have a long chat well before Sunday's game -- but it's hardly a stretch to see him in an ownership/management position with this team in the near future, but perhaps not quite as near as a few weeks from now.