Bets are open on win totals for the 2015 college football season, and for the fourth straight season your humble college football blogger is taking a stab at picking against those totals for every SEC team. With an over or under call made for each SEC West program Thursday, Friday it's the SEC East's turn.
As always, totals reflect regular season contests only (no conference title or bowl games) and lines are current at 5Dimes as of Friday. (Plus-odds indicate a bettor earns more money back than wagered if the bet pays off, minus-odds the opposite; a bet at +120 earns $120 for every $100 wagered, a bet at -120 requires $120 wagered to win $100. Got it?)
Team names are linked to their respective 2015 schedules. And remember: entertainment purposes only. (Trust me.) Enjoy!
Florida, 7.5 wins (over +110, under -150)
The Gators were an Idaho washout from seven wins last season, got what seems like a clear offensive coaching upgrade, and dropped Alabama from the schedule. So eight wins this go-round ought to be in the cards, right? Maybe not (as the juice on the under indicates): vs. Ole Miss-at LSU is still a rough draw out of the West, the Gators have only three SEC home games, winnable games vs. Kentucky and South Carolina are made tougher by being on the road, and of course Florida State's still waiting at season's end. There's a lot of winnable games here -- 8-4 wouldn't be a shock at all -- but there's a lot of loseable games, too, especially for an in-transition program with offensive line issues. UNDER 7.5 WINS.
Georgia, 9 wins (over -135, under -105)
Greyson Lambert's arrival doesn't change anything regarding this space's preview of Georgia last week: the Dawgs were still better than their record a year ago, are still poised to be one of the nation's best defenses on passing downs, and still have a certain Nick Chubb. The schedule is the East's toughest by orders of magnitude, and whoever's the quarterback -- Brice Ramsey remains the guess here -- has to prove himself competent-at-least. but unless the Dawgs drop all three road tilts at Tennessee, Auburn and Georgia Tech, nine wins really should be the floor here. OVER 9 WINS.
Kentucky, 6 wins (over -145, under +105)
You know things have changed in Lexington when the payout's greater on betting the Wildcats to go 7-5 than 5-7. But have they changed that much already? The Wildcats are more talented (and thanks to Patrick Towles and Drew Barker, have a far better quarterback situation) than at any time since Rich Brooks' heyday, but there's really only two certain wins on the schedule. UL-Lafayette and Vanderbilt will likely get the Wildcats to four, but from there Mark Stoops would need three victories from the following eight games: at South Carolina, Mississippi State and Georgia; vs. Florida, Missouri, Auburn, Tennessee and Louisville. Six wins seems far likelier than either five or seven, but until the 'Cats prove they can beat a quality team on the road, the prices here mean siding with the under ... barely. UNDER 6 WINS.
Missouri, 7.5 wins (over -180, under +140)
So: the Tigers weren't as strong as their record last season. Maty Mauk was erratic even in the best of times. The receiving corps has been decimated by graduation (again). At some point, surely the well of NFL-caliber defensive linemen will dry up. At at -180, that over is pricey. No matter: after picking the Tigers to go under each of the last two seasons and being woefully, woefully wrong both times, I'm not doubting Gary Pinkel again -- especially when the outstanding Barry Odom has taken over the defense ... Southeast Missouri State, Arkansas State, UConn, Kentucky and Vanderbilt are all on the schedule ... and South Carolina, Florida, Mississippi State, BYU and Tennessee all come to Columbia. OVER 7.5 WINS.
South Carolina, 7 wins (over -120, under -120)
That was fast: only a season removed from back-to-back-to-back 10-win seasons, the Gamecocks have the East's fifth-highest listed total, ahead of only Vandy and Kentucky. Having the SEC's worst per-play defense, quarterback uncertainty, and no established playmakers outside of Pharoh Cooper will do that -- especially when facing a blistering schedule with just two comfortable-looking wins on it. Steve Spurrier might be capable of coaxing eight wins out of his team this year (by, say, surprising Missouri on the road and losing no more than a game at home despite facing North Carolina, Kentucky, UCF, LSU, Florida and Clemson), but if he does, it might be one of his better coaching jobs. UNDER 7 WINS.
Tennessee, 7.5 wins (over -140, under +100)
It's easy to see why there's so much excitement surrounding the Vols -- Josh Dobbs has finally settled things at quarterback, the secondary is airtight, what was a desperately young team the past two seasons is now brimming with experience. Nonetheless, it might be worthwhile to tap the brakes on a team that was one near-miraculous comeback at South Carolina away from missing a bowl game entirely. Home games vs. three pieces of nonconference cannon fodder, Vanderbilt and even South Carolina should be wins, and after their 2014 bludgeoning of the Wildcats, a visit to Lexington could make six. But from there, the Vols would need two wins from home games vs. Oklahoma, Arkansas and Georgia and roadies at Florida, Alabama and Missouri. Doable? Absolutely. But with the better payout on the under, the not-at-all-confident pick is UNDER 7.5 WINS.
Vanderbilt, 3 wins (over -135, under -105)
Things are always tough at Vanderbilt, but they're even tougher when what looks like the only viable quarterbacking option on the roster retires to attend medical school (after spring, no less) and the nonconference schedule offers up three loseable games in Western Kentucky, MTSU in Murfreesboro, and Houston in Houston. Derek Mason's defense should be much improved in his second year, and getting Kentucky (and maaaaaaybe Missouri if Mauk's having a particularly horrid day) in Nashville gives them a puncher's chance at getting Mason his first SEC win. But with an offensive situation this dire -- the Commodores ranked 119th in yards per-play last season, and have potentially gotten worse at quarterback -- four wins seems like an awful lot to ask.
So, to wrap up all 14 SEC picks:
"Best" bets: Georgia over 9 (-135), Vanderbilt under 3 (-105), Auburn over 8.5 (-165). Maybe not totally wrong: South Carolina under 7 (-120), LSU under 8 (-115), Missouri over 7.5 (-180), Arkansas over 8.5 (+120). Only if you love danger: Texas A&M under 7.5 (+165), Ole Miss over 8.5 (-110), Mississippi State under 7 (-125), Florida under 7.5 (-150). Stay away: Kentucky under 6 (+105), Tennessee under 7.5 (+100), Alabama under 9.5 (+105).
