I believe Jared Goff will be drafted before Carson Wentz, barring a trade of the first-overall pick. And if new Cleveland Browns offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton gets his way, it will be Goff and not Wentz who that team uses with the second overall selection.
In fact, Goff has many champions within the Browns' organization and although a preponderance of mock drafts will show Wentz being selected with the second-overall pick, I have continued to hear that Goff is actually very well positioned to be Cleveland's guy. There are certainly some splits within the organization -- as is almost always the case in these situations. There are very few once-in-a-generation quarterback prospects to unite an entire franchise in the draft process.
Fact is, many of the Browns scouts, according to numerous league sources, prefer Wentz. But in that organization -- one that just dispatched a half-dozen scouts, many of them very experienced and directly involved in the draft process just three weeks before it begins -- having the scouts in your corner is probably a bad thing. What you will ultimately need is the Moneyball crowd atop the team's football operations department to sign off, and also perpetually-blundering owner Jimmy Haslam (the central figure in the botched decision to draft Johnny Football), and having the coaches on board can't hurt.
And while there is some natural debate as to which of these quarterbacks is best, and some believe the margin is close, sources say Hamilton -- hand-picked by new head coach Hue Jackson (a quarterback guru himself), doesn't see it that way at all. His reports have Goff far and away the better candidate and it wouldn't take a major leap to infer that might just be how Jackson sees things himself. And while things between Jackson and the front office haven't exactly gotten off to a sterling start (as the Browns' free-agent foibles displayed), in this instance he and The Stat Boys might actually be on the same page.
Goff is a California kid who played at Cal -- an area and a program that Jackson knows very well. Hamilton was coaching at Stanford when Goff was being courted by Pac-12 teams and he is very familiar with the kid from the recruiting process. He liked him then and, per his Browns' reports, likes him even more now. Goff is also the preferred choice by many in the analytics community as well. The Browns have spent increasingly more money on the Pro Football Focus resources in the last year, and the PFF crowd prefers Goff. Some of the Browns execs feel precisely the same way, and the fact that Wentz did not face the caliber of competition you would prefer and is a late-bloomer has them concerned.
With the signing of Robert Griffin III -- which I believe will prove to be doomed by about October given the state of this offensive line and the utter lack of anything resembling elite skill players -- the Browns have bought themselves at least a little time to not have to rush their rookie quarterback on the field. And make no mistake, they are perfectly content -- beyond happy, actually -- to see Wentz's name attached to them at every turn. Because, I continue to hear Goff is their guy, and if you think they want Wentz, then you have to jump them to get Wentz and then they have their guy at No. 2.
So, yeah, based on everything I have heard to this point, if the Browns take a quarterback, it's Goff. That's not to say that Joey Bosa and DeForest Buckner are entirely out of the equation either, because they aren't, only it's hard to imagine that the Browns don't take a passer when it's all said and done.
As for that first-overall pick, league sources said the Titans have at least two offers on the table that they deem at least as worthy starting points toward an eventual deal, and their motivation to deal this pick cannot be overstated. Some execs who know Titans rookie general manager Jon Robinson well believe he ultimately will end up dealing that pick to accrue more assets, which are so desperately needed there, and they figure someone will be motivated enough to get a quarterback -- whether it be the Rams or the 49ers or whomever.
"I really do expect them to trade out of that pick," said an executive from one team that has explored possible trade-up scenarios as well. "They'll market it up to the draft to get the best ransom they can, but they'll move it."
If the Titans keep the first-overall selection, I continue to hear left tackle Laremy Tunsil is the pick and it isn't even all that close (as much as you may hear the occasional rumbling about corner Jalen Ramsey). Tennessee has had its top brass at all of the key left tackle's workouts, they have done exhaustive work on that position, and it is a top target -- as it would continue to be in their varied trade-down scenarios (with possible selections including Notre Dame's Ronnie Stanley or Michigan State's Jack Conklin). Regardless, upgrading how they protect quarterback Marcus Mariota is the priority, and they would love for that to come after having acquired a boatload of selections in exchange for the first-overall pick.
Overrated, underrated prospects and a bold prediction
When I ask scouts I trust about the two Clemson defensive linemen and the two Alabama defensive lineman, I get uniformity in my feedback. At this point I expect the least talked about of the two players from each school to go ahead of the one with the greater public profile. So pencil me in for Clemson's Kevin Dodd to end up going higher than Shaq Lawson, and for the Crimson Tide's Jarran Reed to hear his name called before A'Shawn Robinson. "That one isn't even close," said one top evaluator of the Alabama prospects. "I really hope there are people in this league who like Robinson more than Reed. That just makes it easier for us." As for the Clemson kids: "Dodd is the better prospect and I think that's pretty widely accepted," said another evaluator I highly trust." I asked three scouts I know well to name a player or two they believe are being highly overrated by media mock drafts -- all said Robinson fairly quickly and without much hesitation. And two of the three noted corner Eli Apple as well.
Teams are very high on Louisiana Tech defensive linemen Vernon Butler, and I expect him to go in the first round and pretty high at that. The Chiefs are among the teams I have heard him linked to. Scouts love his versatility and ability to pair run stuffing ability with some natural pass rushing moves.
At least one evaluator was adamant with me that he believes Michigan State tackle Jack Conklin is among the safest picks in the draft and he believes Conklin is the second-best offensive lineman in this draft, ahead of Ronnie Stanley. "I love everything about him," he said. "He can be a mean tackle for you and if you moved him inside I believe he is an All-Pro guard." Want a bold prediction for the first round? How about TCU 's Josh Doctson as the first receiver off the board? Yup. Over Laquon Treadwell and Will Fuller. Remember you heard it here first.
More news and notes from around the NFL:
 |
Philadelphia Eagles |
| If the Eagles stay at No. 8, and especially if two quarterbacks are gone by then as widely expected, then I continue to hear running back Ezekiel Elliott is the pick. They are in love with him, they have done extensive work on him, they have parted with accomplished veteran running backs LeSean McCoy and DeMarco Murray the past two years, they need an identity on offense and they are going to be limited at the quarterback position no matter who wins the job. So a run game is imperative. This kid has a top-10 skill set and is plug-and-play and I don't see him getting past Miami at No. 12. This very well could be the second straight year we see a back go in the first 10 picks. While I have been skeptical that the Eagles would actually move up, again, to land another quarterback, some other executives believe GM Howie Roseman is deadset on making a huge splash in this draft, which could well include drafting a passer very high. We shall see. | |
 |
Pittsburgh Steelers |
| The Steelers are looking long and hard at corners and seem to like enough of what they see to make me agree with those mocking them with a defensive back. Count me among those who believes one safety other than versatile safety/corner Jalen Ramsey ends up sneaking into the first round as well (Ohio State safety Vonn Bell was the safety several scouts pointed to as a rising player), and count me among those who believe that Virginia Tech corner Kyle Fuller ends up going on Day 1 of the draft as well. | |
