If you gathered Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brock Osweiler in the same room right now, whom would have the biggest smile?
Given the eruption of the quarterback market over the past 24 hours, those quarterbacks must be beaming from ear to ear. All have a reason to salivate over the number of zeros soon to be attached (or, in the case of Rodgers, eventually reattached via extension) to their contracts, with the recent mega-deals doled out to Kirk Cousins, Sam Bradford and Joe Flacco since the start of this week re-setting the quarterback market on its, well, ear.
So, with Luck in line for his first big-boy NFL contract and Fitzpatrick and Osweiler pending free agents engaged deep in talks with the Jets and Broncos respectively, and Rodgers looking at the deals handed to Cam Newton and Russell Wilson and in line for another bite at the apple himself, well, what a time to be an NFL quarterback. Even a marginal one!
The salary cap is finally increasing in leaps and bounds, the television (and relocation) money is flowing into owners and teams are desperate to keep the quarterbacks they have, whether they be one-year wonders (Cousins), mostly busts to this point in their career (Bradford), unproven commodities (Osweiler) or a guy who was available for essentially a sixth-round pick just a year ago (Fitzpatrick). Or in the case of the Ravens, desperate to lower the cap figure of the franchise quarterback they already have, even if he is currently rehabbing a torn ACL and MCL (Flacco).
So, in the span of one day, Cousins, Bradford and Flacco basically netted a combined $86 million guaranteed for 2016 alone -- including Flacco’s $40 million signing bonus, which includes deferred payments over time but is fully guaranteed as of Wednesday. That is staggering, and is lighting up the halls of the NFLPA and agent's offices all over the country. And it is Exhibit 100 as to why it was utterly ridiculous for Colts owner Jim Irsay to refuse to engage Luck in contract talks a year ago before all hell broke loose over and over again.
One could make the case, and rightfully so, that the Redskins had no choice but to franchise Cousins, even at $20 million for one season. Sources have indicated Cousins very well may go ahead and sign that franchise tender Wednesday, making that figure fully guaranteed and negate any more talks about a long-term deal for another year. He is coming off one of the best seasons in franchise history, he is beloved by his coaches and teammates, the Redskins had no viable Plan B and they are about to get $17 million off their books for 2016 by cutting Robert Griffin III.
Oh yeah, and RG3 and Colin Kaepernick much be jumping for joy if/when they get cut, too, given the way the money is flowing at their position.
As I reported back in December, the Redskins had decided internally they weren’t going to let Cousins walk and would be prepared to franchise him to keep him, and that’s where this thing was always headed.
Similarly, with Flacco set to count nearly $30 million against their cap, the Ravens always knew they were going to have to approach him about a new deal in February 2016. When Flacco signed his "six-year" pact with Baltimore back in 2013, it was always truly a three-year, $62 million deal (with record guarantees) that would force both sides back to the table in 2016. And Flacco, with huge base salaries and cap figures remaining on that deal, had no reason to agree to anything that didn’t fully incentivize him to do so. And, for the second time in 36 months or so, his agent, Joe Linta, is exacting a shocking payday from the Ravens, record marks in several key salary metrics, and absolutely killed it for his client.
Unlike the last time around, Flacco was not coming off a Super Bowl MVP selection and one of the greatest postseasons in NFL history. He was coming off a lowly five-win total for a team some (surprisingly) picked as preseason Super Bowl favorites and a year in which his remarkable games played streak was snapped by a season-ending knee injury. Yet still Flacco prospered in ways I’m not sure many besides Linta thought he might.
Consider: Flacco received a record $40 million signing bonus and gets $44 million guaranteed in year one of this new deal alone. The total new money on the contract (meaning the new money he is signed for beyond what he was already owed) is a record $66.4 million, or $22.1 million per new year, again, you guessed it, a record. For the full six years of his deal, Flacco averages over $20 million per year. Yes, the Ravens get a little more wiggle room (his cap number goes from $28.6 million down to $22.6 million in 2016, and Baltimore saves $13.3 million in cap room over the next two years) and Flacco's base salaries decrease to $4 million this year, $6 million in 2017 and $12 million in 2018.
But between the $62 million Flacco earned from 2013-15, plus his 2016 signing bonus and base salary, that total amasses to $106 million in a four-year span. Wowsers. Yes, that bonus includes deferred payments, but it is still fully guaranteed at the time of signing. He secured over $100 million in four years. Flacco should erect a statue to Linta outside his home. The NFLPA should consider a similar plan near their Washington, D.C., offices.
But Flacco certainly has a strong overall pedigree and a superb postseason pedigree and has been durable and, at times, outstanding. Say what you want about Baltimore’s deal with Flacco, but what Sam Bradford and Tom Condon pulled off on the Eagles is even more stupendous. When you compare what the player has accomplished with what he has earned and what he will continue to earn, no quarterback contract is more baffling to me (OK, the Foles extension with the Rams last year maybe still is). Few speak more directly to the lack of perceived available options at the quarterback position, and the lengths teams will go.
He has already pocketed over $78M in the NFL, and of all of the quarterbacks who have entered the NFL in 2010 or later, only Matthew Stafford has earned more. For the 2016 season, only Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Cousins and Flacco are quarterbacks set to earn more than the $18M cash Bradford will make (excluding Peyton Manning, as the Broncos will cut him before his $19M deal becomes guaranteed next week).
Bradford, who many executives and agents believed had little-to-no market outside of Philadelphia, received $22 million guaranteed for one year of work, and the chance to earn $36 million over the next two years (including about $4 million in incentives). This is the same Bradford whom the Rams, who drafted him first-overall and remain one of the most quarterback-needy teams in the NFL, were eager to finally part with a year ago rather than have to pay him another $14 million to try to come back off another surgery and believed, ahem, Foles to be a more viable option.
This is the same Bradford who again got hurt in 2015, who has played in only 21 of his team's past 48 regular-season games, who has never been to the playoffs, and who, even last season with his second-half surge, still ranked 26th in the NFL in passer rating.
Bradford has already pocketed over $78 million in the NFL, and of all of the quarterbacks who have entered the NFL in 2010 or later, only Matthew Stafford has earned more. For the 2016 season, only Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Cousins and Flacco are quarterbacks set to earn more than the $18 million Bradford will make -- excluding Peyton Manning, as the Broncos will cut him before his $19 million deal becomes guaranteed next week.
Even if you think maybe, just maybe, Bradford's former coach in Philadelphia (Chip Kelly) wanted to reunite with him in San Francisco, and you know few people do bad contracts like Kelly (who was willing to overpay Bradford a year ago to extend him with the Eagles), there is the matter of Colin Kaepernick still being out on Kelly’s roster and Kelly doesn’t have control of the purse strings as he did in Philly. The Eagles always had other options and if Bradford had leverage, it was seemingly only with the Eagles.
If they wanted to pay Bradford $18 million, they could have put the transition tag on him at $17.7 million, and then had the right to match any contract. Let the market speak. If you think this guy is really your quarterback for the foreseeable future (and the Eagles don’t, given the structure of this deal, as I will get to in a moment), then see what kind of offer sheet someone else will sign him to, let them do the negotiating for you, and then opt to match or let him go, for no compensation.
Frankly, there is no way I am signing him to anything before March 9, and I would let him see exactly what the market had to bear, especially with the Eagles’ dreadful season putting them in position to draft a quarterback 13th overall -- and they very well might still do so even after inking Bradford to this two-year pact. Ain’t no way in hell I am giving Bradford $11 million to sign, guaranteeing his $7 million base salary in 2016 as well and then also guaranteeing him $4 million of his $13 million base salary in 2017.
What the Eagles did, in essence, is transition him -- nearly $18 million for 2016 -- and then buy another year of his potential service if they so desire via a $4 million roster bonus next March, as they can walk from the player if they don’t pick it up. But they did so at such a premium -- $22 million guaranteed including that $4 million for 2017 -- that generally nets a team rights to the player over many more years.
“When you pay $22 million for a player, you always get more than two years,” as one team negotiator put it. “Who would they even have been bidding against, at these numbers, realistically?"
That is part of what has other NFL executives and salary cap experts shaking their heads.
Many said they would not do it for even an elite player. None said he would do it for Bradford. And if even the Eagles truly believed in Bradford, and were willing to pay him $18 million over a number of years, they would have done so. It would not be structured as a Band-Aid deal, if it was not in fact a Band-Aid deal.
They’re hedging their bets for a reason, but doing so at a price most teams would pay -- even for a standout player -- in exchange for long-term control of the asset. To give Bradford a 33 percent raise over his $13.5 million salary in 2015 (the final year of his bonus-baby rookie contract from the old CBA) in a year in which the team fell well below expectations and in which he ranked 26th in rating, 25th in yards per attempt and threw 19 touchdowns to 14 interceptions and tied for the fourth-most turnovers in the NFL is somewhat staggering to me.
And many would argue this was Bradford's best NFL season. It is not an anomaly. Not like it was some down year. Since Bradford entered the league in 2010 as the first overall pick, here are his ranks among all NFL quarterbacks:
- 25th in completion percentage (60.1, about the same as Foles)
- 20th in yards (14,790)
- 36th in yards per attempt (6.45, right there with Matt Cassel and Mark Sanchez and Brandon Weeden)
- 21st in touchdowns (78)
- 35th in touchdown percentage (3.4, just above Christian Ponder)
- 18th in interceptions (52)
- 11th in interception percentage (2.3, so he is almost top 10 in something)
- 30th in quarterback rating (81.0, just behind Brian Hoyer and just ahead of Josh Freeman)
As Don King said: only in America. In this case, only in Philadelphia.
But that’s how things go in the NFL these days for quarterbacks, it seems, with the trend nowhere close to its end. No one in this game is overpaid, given the risks involved for the players and the unquantifiable rewards these owners bask in, and I would never begrudge anyone maximizing his value.
Get yours, because tomorrow isn't guaranteed.
So Luck, Fitzpatrick, Osweiler and Rodgers, come on down. Get in line. I promise you won’t have to wait all that long.
