The initial shock has worn off.  The Eagles and Bills pulled off one of the more surprising trades that we’ve seen in quite some time, and after some deliberation and discussions with people around the league, I’m ready to try to make sense of it. In fact, for as out-of-nowhere as it seemed, and for how quickly it came together, once the initial holy-crap factor dissipates it’s not all that difficult to see why either side made it.

While many have already declared their thoughts on a winner or a loser, the fact is, no one knows yet how LeSean McCoy is going to fare in Buffalo in a very different offense than what he is accustomed to, and no one knows exactly when Kiko Alonso will be 100 percent for Philadelphia coming off his ACL injury, and whether or not his breakout rookie season was a true barometer of the kind of impact player he will be.

Most of the knee-jerk reaction stuff (Kelly wants a team full of Oregon Ducks! The Eagles just want to run all of their best players off! The Bills fleeced the Eagles!) has died down by now, hopefully, and after digesting this transaction I can see its allure for both clubs, at least to some degree, and how it sets the table for what should be a highly active offseason still to come.

 It’s clear that the Bills assume the financial risk here. They take on an outlier contract for a running back who may or not be already a declining asset after touching the ball a ton. McCoy  is set to make $10M this season and owed $24M over the final three years on his deal. McCoy and agent Drew Rosenhaus will ultimately get other roster concessions – adding guaranteed money in future years and/or putting some of the money as an upfront bonus – that could make the fiscal ramifications even more significant if this move does not pan out for the Bills.

The Eagles, meantime, buy low on a potential star linebacker who won’t be making any significant money at all for likely three more seasons, and could fill a long-time void in trying to find upper-echelon middle linebackers (Alonso paired with Mychal Kendricks in a 3-4 scheme could be huge for Philadelphia’s still-lagging defense).

   From a public relations standpoint, the Bills are the big winners. Their new owner, Terry Pegula, continues a very proactive in his first offseason, landing an All Pro at a position of need and one of critical import to his ground-and-pound new head coach, Rex Ryan.

McCoy is just a year removed from a franchise-record season for the Eagles and with the Bills still at least a year away from finding their quarterback of the future, and going with Matt Cassel or EJ Manuel in the present, running the ball will be beyond imperative. And the Eagles assume the potentially-massive risk with their fanbase, letting go of their top offensive performer for a second straight year, getting very little in return, at least in the immediate future, with DeSean Jackson cut a year ago and now McCoy traded. Add in Alonso’s ties to Kelly from Oregon, and the linebacker becoming the ninth Duck on Philadelphia’s roster, and you have the makings of a full blown sports-talk riot in Philly.

Chip Kelly is shaping the roster exactly the way he wants.
Chip Kelly is shaping the roster exactly the way he wants. (USATSI)

The Eagles side of the deal

   So let’s dispel of some of that right away. First of all, if Kelly, who now unquestionably controls the keys to the entire kingdom in Philadelphia, hadn’t already proved to you he doesn’t give a damn about public opinion and PR then you haven’t been paying attention. He’s anything but risk-averse or caught up in groupthink, and far from concerned about perception. That’s never a part of his equation. And it’s foolish to think he’s prowling for Ducks (or hunting for Ducks? I’m not much of an outdoorsman).

   The Eagles may have cut McCoy if they were not able to trade him, they hoped to have something materialize quickly, spoke to a few running-back needy teams and Alonso was available and made sense. He fills a need, has great upside, and fitting him into Ryan’s new scheme, a year after Buffalo’s stud defense barely missed a beat without him, was going to be tricky anyway. The fact he played for Kelly and the coach knows him well is a plus, but don’t kid yourself into thinking Kelly is trying to collect as many Oregon players as he can. This just happened to work out that way.

  And the idea that Kelly wants to run off every player of his that has a big persona or is strong-minded or whatever, I’m not buying that either. Yes, he has a keen appreciation for his system and its ability to cull productivity out of lesser players and perhaps he prizes that a bit too much. Time will tell. DeSean Jackson certainly came back to bite him on the backside in two games with Washington last season that helped keep Philadelphia from the playoffs. But I don’t think it’s all ego or hubris. I believe it is grounded in basic economic principles. Above all else Kelly wants to win, and I don’t think he’s above a personality clash or two to make that happen … if the contract is reasonable.    

   What this is really about is money, and inefficiency, from Kelly’s perspective. And on this he seems particularly unwavering, regardless of a player’s popularity.

   Running backs aren’t getting deals like McCoy’s these days, and, if Adrian Peterson ends up taking a paycut to play somewhere else, McCoy’s deal could stand as the second-highest in the entire league for a running back once Marshawn Lynch’s reworked deal with Seattle becomes official. So, is he worth it? When the Eagles’ offensive line suffered some injuries in 2014, McCoy’s output slipped dramatically to the point he was essentially an average back (4.2 yards per carry). Without serious cap ramifications and guaranteed money hanging over Kelly, he’s looking at this as the perfect time to redirect assets out of this declining position at a time when the draft is loaded with backs. And you don’t even need to invest a top pick to land one. His scheme and his line is good enough to get 4.2 anywhere so why risk another year of it at $10M when he has needs to fill holes elsewhere?

  By trading McCoy, rather than just letting him walk, the Eagles obviously get an asset in return, but also get McCoy out of the NFC – would Dallas have swooped for him as a replacement for DeMarco Murray? – and if nothing else makes sure he doesn’t end up with a rival, a la Jackson. But don’t think for a minute that if Kelly believed this $10M was best spent elsewhere – and he clearly did – that he wouldn’t have just released the running back. I’m assuming he would have.

   So, what does it mean for the Eagles? Well, this decision, coupled with cutting guys like Trent Cole, Todd Herremans and Cary Williams, has created ample cash room. Not cap room – they already had plenty of that – but cap room in which to invest heavily in this year's budget with the cash out-lays earmarked for those veterans now gone. It sets the stage for Kelly to rebuild his secondary – he is very fond of Bill Belichick and watched Belichick take a revamped secondary to another Lombardi a few weeks back – and sources continue to tell me that corner Byron Maxwell and safety Devin McCourty are top targets for Philly.

   They may go ahead and risk overspending on a pass rusher, particularly Pittsburgh's Jason Worilds, who sources say the Eagles have particular interest in and fits their scheme. The Eagles will likely continue to try to make efforts to keep receiver Jeremy Maclin prior to the market opening next week. They are primed to splurge, with Kelly miffed about missing the playoffs last year and someone who I suspect will dangle no shortage of future draft picks to move up and draft Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota. Kelly ain’t worried about tomorrow and if he decides he’s not long for this pro stuff he can always go back to the college ranks at anytime and cash in big time there.

  People in contact with Kelly through his initial NFL coaching interviews say he gushed about Mariota even way back then, calling him the most talented player he had ever worked with, a tremendous kid and glowing quarterback whom Kelly believed “would win multiple Super Bowls.” So shipping Nick Foles and a bunch of high picks won’t scare him in the least and it’s fair to say he would see Mariota as a day one starter and not a developmental guy. Grab Mariota, find your running back in the mid-rounds and away you go. If he still had Jackson and McCoy counting close to $20M, the reshaping wouldn’t be possible.

   Of course, it could fail. Maybe even fail miserably. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Kelly gives it a go.

Rex Ryan gets a running back to pound the rock with in Buffalo.
Rex Ryan gets a running back to pound the rock with in Buffalo. (USATSI)

What to make of the Bills side of the trade

  As for the Bills, well, you have a rookie owner with a front office trying to make a good impression and a coach who isn’t going to be wrapped up in the cap and all of that. Rex gets his running back, the Bills make a splash and continue to show a desire to do things ASAP. They  signed Richie Incognito (seemingly bidding against themselves in the process), tried to sign Josh McCown, eventually traded for Matt Cassel when that failed and agreed to the McCoy trade. All, of course, completed still a week before the league year even officially begins.

Ryan knows he has a dominant defense there and just needs a caretaker quarterback and a top rushing attack to make his equation work. And it just might, though McCoy’s recent workload and the lack of talent around him on the offensive line in particular could end up dooming this move. But the Bills aren’t done, either.

   Alonso may not have been a fit in this scheme, but Ryan knows that Jets free agent linebacker David Harris, is, and Harris will be the coach on the field, the mentor to teach the system on-field, like when he brought Bart Scott to New York with him from Baltimore. And with the run game so important, the Bills plan to make a run at top offensive linemen as well, with San Francisco’s Mike Iupati atop their list from what I gather. If it all meshes, maybe they are a playoff factor (though quarterback play, in this era of football in particular, can never be marginalized – it really is everything).

  Buffalo doesn’t have a first round pick, forcing the team to make the most of its other selections, and McCoy is seen as more of a sure thing than perhaps a runner taken on the second day of the draft. Clearly, this owner is motivated to eliminate as many potential needs now before the market explodes next week, and the lack of impact free agents at skill positions is a very real factor.

   So, again, I get it. From both team’s perspectives. I understand how it sets the stage for what both teams hope to accomplish this offseason, and the rationale behind it. Perhaps, it works out for them both. Perhaps neither. If nothing else, it further confirms that Kelly and Ryan won’t go quietly, and time will tell how close either is to truly lifting his franchise.