While four teams -- the Patriots, Broncos, Colts and Cardinals -- have clinched playoff spots and 17 more remain technically alive, only six teams can still possibly secure the No. 1 pick in the 2015 NFL Draft.
Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Jacksonville and Oakland enter the season's second-to-last week with only two wins, while Washington and the New York Jets have three. Every other team in the league has at least five wins, so someone out of this group of six squads will be on the clock first.
The Bucs, by virtue of strength of schedule, have a leg up on the competition, but since one of the remaining games on their slate is against an NFC South rival (New Orleans in Week 17), there's no guarantee they stay in pole position. With that in mind, let's take a look at the remaining schedule and some possible draft needs for these six team.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12) | Draft needs: QB, OL, DL
Strength of schedule: 0.467 | Games left: Packers (10-4), Saints (6-8)
Lovie Smith brought Josh McCown to Tampa this off-season to be his starting quarterback, but it turned out the veteran's surprisingly good play in Chicago last season was more mirage than late-career trend. Mike Glennon got a few starts this year as well, but it seems fairly clear the quarterback of the future is not on the roster. How fun would it be to watch Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston throw to Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins for the next decade?
Tennessee Titans (2-12) | Draft needs: QB, OL, WR, OLB
SOS: 0.503 | Games left: at Jaguars (2-12), Colts (10-4)
It's possible Ken Whisenhunt doesn't agree that his team needs a quarterback and thinks it can get by with Zach Mettenberger. After all, he thought the same was true of Kevin Kolb -- and others -- in Arizona. In that case, the Titans could use some help along the offensive line, where Andy Levitre and Brian Schwenke have struggled this season and Michael Roos is set to become a free agent, or at wide receiver, where Kendall Wright looks like the only above-average option. Derrick Morgan has transitioned fairly well in his switch to becoming a 3-4 outside linebacker, but the remaining pass-rush options have been lackluster.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12) | Draft needs: OL, DB
SOS: 0.538 | Games left: Titans (2-12), at Texans (7-7)
Thursday's game against Tennessee seems likely to determine who gets to pick second. Jacksonville, win or lose, is an intriguing trade-down candidate. The top of the draft is stacked with quarterback, wide receiver and defensive line prospects, and those are pretty much the only three position groups where Jacksonville seems to be set. Picking up extra selections to fill out depth in other places seems like the optimal strategy.
Oakland Raiders (2-12) | Draft needs: WR, DL
SOS: 0.571 | Games left: Bills (8-6), at Broncos (11-3)
Khalil Mack has been terrific toiling in relative anonymity in the Bay Area this season, and Derek Carr has shown flashes that he could be the long-term answer at quarterback. Oakland has needs basically everywhere else. Amari Cooper makes a ton of sense, as the Raiders sorely lack explosive playmakers. James Jones leads the team with 70 receptions, but he has gained only 9.5 yards per catch. Beyond him and Andre Holmes, the pass-catching cupboard is pretty much bare.
Washington Redskins (3-11) | Draft needs: DL, DB
SOS: 0.469 | Games left: Eagles (9-5), Cowboys (10-4)
Washington has the league's worst pass defense. They've allowed opposing quarterbacks to post a 109.9 QB Rating, 65.7 completion percentage and 8.2 yards per attempt, essentially the equivalent of Tony Romo or Aaron Rodgers' season performance. They're 32nd in pass defense DVOA despite posting relatively good sack numbers. The E.J. Biggers-Bashaud Breeland-David Amerson trio at cornerback has not worked out very well, and when Brandon Meriweather is your best safety, you're in trouble.
New York Jets (3-11) | Draft needs: QB, OL, DB
SOS: 0.536 | Games left: Patriots (11-3), at Dolphins (7-7)
The Jets won their way out of the No. 1 slot with a victory against Tennessee last weekend. They would have been in position to grab from a number of prospects who fit their needs, including either of the top quarterbacks or a tackle. It seems likely there will be a new coach in place by the time the Jets are drafting so other needs may emerge, but they need to get things settled under center and on the back end of their defense.
