They may have entered the weekend leading their respective divisions, but Week 14 Monday Night Football foes Atlanta and Green Bay couldn’t be any more different. The 5-7 Falcons are only still playoff contenders because they’re part one of the worst divisions in NFL history, while the 9-3 Packers are undoubtedly the hottest team in football.
But when you think about these two teams, it goes well beyond that.
The publicly owned Packers represent the smallest market in North American professional sports, but their extensive fan base is consistently lauded for its passion and loyalty. Their season ticket waiting list has more than 81,000 names on it.
The Falcons are owned by the dude who founded Home Depot. Despite hailing from a global city with the ninth-largest metropolitan area in the United States, their attendance is consistently in the middle of the pack and their fan base is rarely if ever ranked among the league’s best.
The Packers are the third-oldest franchise in the NFL. They play in a 57-year-old stadium that is viewed as a shrine to football. They’ve won a record nine championships, including four Super Bowls.
The Falcons will turn 50 in 2016 but are already on the verge of moving into their third stadium, which is already running the team, the city and the county $1.4 billion and -- per legal requirements for this day and age -- will resemble a steel nest while making good use of hashtags. All this despite the fact their current stadium -- the admittedly antiseptic Georgia Dome -- is barely legal drinking age. They’ve been to only one championship game, which they lost by 15 points.
Of course, I’m not being completely fair to Atlanta. It’s tough to compare anybody to the Packers. Like most of their NFL peers, the Falcons don’t possess the history and tradition we see in Green Bay. But if the birds can pull off a prime-time upset at Lambeau Field Monday night, past won’t be prologue in the eyes of most Falcons fans.
Let's elaborate while breaking down the matchup in both serious and non-serious fashion. Fourteen things to know:
1. Mismatch: Best. Quarterback. Ever vs. NFL’s worst pass defense
Overstatement? I’m not so sure. Not only is Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers already the highest-rated passer in NFL history, but he’s pulling further away from the pack by putting together one of the best seasons you’ll ever see from a quarterback.
Rodgers, macro:
| Aaron Rodgers among all-time QBs | ||
| Category | Total | Rank |
| Comp. percentage | 65.9 | 3rd |
| TD-INT | 220-55 | 1st |
| Yards/attempt | 8.3 | 1st |
| Passer rating | 106.5 | 1st |
Micro:
| NFL passing leaders, 2014 | |||||
| Rank | Comp. percentage | TD-INT | Yards/attempt | Rating | QBR |
| 1st | Brees (70.3) | Rodgers (32-3) | Rodgers (8.8) | Rodgers (118.6) | Rodgers (86.4) |
| 2nd | Rivers (69.1) | Brady (28-6) | Romo (8.4) | P. Manning (107.8) | P. Manning (80.6) |
| 3rd | Romo (68.2) | P. Manning (36-9) | Luck (8.4) | Romo (106.2) | Brady (78.3) |
| 4th | P. Manning (66.8) | Roethlisberger (26-8) | Fitzpatrick (8.1) | Luck (103.0) | Rivers (78.1) |
| *Rodgers ranks 8th with a completion percentage of 66.3 | |||||
Super-micro:
| Aaron Rodgers, Week 4-13 | ||
| Category | Total | Rank |
| Record | 8-1 | 1st |
| Comp. percentage | 67.6 | 5th |
| TD-INT | 27-2 | 1st |
| Yards/attempt | 9.5 | 1st |
| Passer rating | 127.2 | 1st |
Now he goes up against a Falcons pass defense that entered Week 14 ranked dead last in the NFL. Not only is Atlanta’s banged-up secondary shaky, but that defense has failed to generate pressure much of the year.
Against Rodgers, that is a huge problem.
See, No. 12 is somewhat susceptible to pressure. He’s completed a mere 45.2 percent of his passes while under duress this season, according to Pro Football Focus. That ranks 19th among 28 qualifying quarterbacks. But only two qualifying passers -- Andy Dalton and Peyton Manning -- have been pressured less frequently.
Meanwhile, the Falcons have just 15 sacks in 12 games and a sack rate of just 3.1, which ranked tied for last in the NFL coming into Week 14.
The Atlanta pass rush did wake up a bit last week against the Arizona Cardinals, but don’t be fooled into believing that a solid performance against Drew Stanton means they’ll be able to keep Rodgers under control.
The Falcons got through to Stanton -- a career backup with 20 starts under his belt -- by blitzing often. Mike Nolan sent extra rushers at him on 15 of his 40 dropbacks. That paid off nicely, with Stanton posting a passer rating of -- and this is not a typo -- 1.7 on 11 pressured dropbacks.
The problem is that against blitzes this season, Rodgers has been unstoppable.
| Aaron Rodgers, 2014 | ||
| Category | No blitz | Blitz |
| Comp. percentage | 67.4 | 62.9 |
| TD-INT | 19-2 | 13-1 |
| Yards/attempt | 8.4 | 9.9 |
| Passer rating | 112.0 | 130.9 |
On top of all that, Rodgers gets the Falcons at Lambeau. Not only are the Packers 6-0 at home this year with an average margin of victory of 23.2 points, but Rodgers has been especially, um, special in Wisconsin.
| Aaron Rodgers at home, 2014 | ||
| Category | Total | Rank |
| Record | 6-0 | 1st |
| Comp. percentage | 65.9 | 12th |
| TD-INT | 20-0 | 1st |
| Yards/attempt | 9.8 | 1st |
| Passer rating | 134.4 | 1st |
So this couldget ugly. Still ...
2. In Atlanta, it’s not as bad as it looks
The Falcons are the biggest underdog of the week -- MGM Mirage had the Packers listed as a 11.5-point favorite as of Saturday -- and they lost five consecutive games in September and October, but it’s easy to forget that this team is still a playoff contender.
Because the NFC South is terrible, they entered the weekend tied in first place in the division despite a 5-7 record. That doesn’t make them good, but consider that they were 2-6 entering November.
The Falcons have won three of their last four games, two of which came on the road. The third was at home, but against an Arizona Cardinals team that had lost only twice all season. Some facts:
- Atlanta scored 29 points against a defense that had surrendered more than 20 points just once in 11 games. Through 12 weeks, only the Lions had given up fewer points than Arizona.
- Atlanta’s top wide receiver, Julio Jones, had 10 catches for a career-high 189 yards despite being covered all day by All-Pro cornerback Patrick Peterson. Jones caught all eight of the passes quarterback Matt Ryan threw his way with Peterson in coverage. It might have been the worst game of his career.
- They did that without their other star receiver, Roddy White. But White is expected to return from an ankle injury Monday night.
Ryan is no Rodgers, but the guy is a Pro Bowler in his prime and he’s hitting his stride of late. With Jones on fire and White returning, that trio could do some damage against a Green Bay defense that might be missing top corner Sam Shields, who suffered a concussion last week against New England.
3. Trap game for the Packers?
Many of us have developed a tendency to use that “trap game” phrase haphazardly and without proper context. Although there’s no official Webster’s definition, I’m going to come right out and state for the record that a trap game isn’t merely a game in which a good team plays a bad team.
To be “trapped,” a good team has to be caught basking in a big victory and/or looking ahead to an important game. And in this case, the Packers run that risk.
Just a week ago, in a clash of titans from each conference, Green Bay beat the New England Patriots to end their seven-game winning streak.
Afterwards, they couldn’t even pretend it wasn’t a massive victory.
“We kind of told you guys earlier in the week that it was just another game,” said safety Micah Hyde. “We were lying. I bet you probably knew that already, but we were lying. It was a huge game. And we were fortunate enough to get that win.”
Are the Packers getting cocky? I wouldn’t go that far, but head coach Mike McCarthy was confident enough coming out of that win to call this the most consistent Green Bay team he’s coached, and he did give his guys an extra day off in preparation for this game.
I noted above that Atlanta could be sneaky-good, and the Jones factor can’t be ignored. The Packers have so much going for them, but they have struggled lately against elite No. 1 receivers.
| No. 1 receivers making the Packers look bad | |||||
| Player | Game | Catches | Targets | Yards | TDs |
| Jeremy Maclin | Week 11 | 9 | 11 | 93 | 1 |
| Brandon Marshall | Week 10 | 8 | 10 | 112 | 1 |
| Mike Wallace | Week 7 | 5 | 8 | 67 | 1 |
| Total | 75.8% | 90.7 | 3 | ||
Throw in that Shields is hurt and the Packers could have a problem on their hands.
On the other side of the potential trap, Green Bay’s next opponent, Buffalo, is a playoff contender with arguably the league’s best pass rush. So watch out.
4. A family battle, a patchwork offensive line vs. a new-look front seven
If the Mannings are the first family of NFL quarterbacks then the Matthewses are the first family of NFL tough guys. And two of them will be on the field when Atlanta has the ball Monday night.
Pro Bowl Packers linebacker Clay Matthews III and rookie Falcons offensive tackle Jake Matthews are first cousins. Their fathers, Clay Matthews Jr. and Bruce Matthews, were All-Pros at the same positions their sons now play. Clay’s little brother Casey is a linebacker for the Eagles, and grandpa (Clay Matthews Sr., although they probably didn’t use the generational suffix at the time) was an offensive tackle for the 49ers in the 1950s.
Both Matthews boys in this game have had some tribulations this season, but both are also getting it together just in time.
Clay, who is versatile but also a pass-rushing specialist at heart, has just in the last month been moved to a jack-of-all-trades role that has him spending the majority of his snaps at inside linebacker. Brother Casey suggested in November that Clay wasn’t thrilled with the change, but Clay denies that.
Either way, it’s been a bit of a trip.
The move was initially made in early November in an obvious attempt to get more snaps on the outside for rushers Julius Peppers, Nick Perry and Mike Neal. With veteran A.J. Hawk struggling inside, defensive coordinator Dom Capers was finding a way to maximize the time those guys were able to spend on the field.
In the initial test, Matthews had a sack, 11 tackles and a ridiculous seven defensive stops in a blowout victory over the Bears.
Matt Forte for no gain:
Chris Williams, eight-yard loss:
Dante Rosario for only three yards on a reception:
Then Capers became even more creative, using Matthews in a wide array of spots as he picked up another sack and five more tackles in blowout victory over the Eagles. It was in that game where we started seeing Matthews play the role of an inside linebacker despite often lining up outside of the outside linebackers, which I believe is illegal in most countries.
It even happened on a sack:
He also continues to make quality plays as a read-and-react inside ‘backer, as we saw on this one-yard stuff against the Patriots:
This all means that Jake Matthews won’t likely have too many one-on-one matchups with his older cousin, which is probably a good thing. The No. 6 overall pick out of Texas A&M has been a turnstile for most of his rookie season at left tackle. A turnstile that also holds people.
Matthews has committed a league-high 10 penalties and is graded by Pro Football Focus as the worst tackle in the NFL. That’s 77th out of 77 qualifying players at that position.
| PFF: League's worst offensive tackles, 2014 | |
| Player | Grade |
| Jake Matthews | -34.6 |
| Matt Kalil | -29.9 |
| Byron Bell | -29.4 |
| Seantrel Henderson | -24.5 |
| Michael Oher | -20.2 |
The, um, good news is that Matthews earned his best PFF grade of the year last week against Arizona. The grade? That’s not important. OK, it was 0.0. But that sure beats something with a minus sign in front of it. Lorenzo Alexander beat him for a sack in the second quarter, but that was the only pressure he was responsible for all day.
Why does he appear to be turning a corner? For starters, he’s a rookie who was baptized by fire and is naturally becoming more comfortable. But it should also be noted that Matthews played through a high ankle sprain for much of September and October, so simply being healthier now certainly helps.
It also helps that the guys around him have started to offer more support.
A big reason why Matthews wasn’t pulled from the lineup while hobbling around during the first half of the season is that they really didn’t have anybody else. Preseason starting tackles Sam Baker and Lamar Holmes are on injured reserve, as are their top two centers, Joe Hawley and Peter Konz.
Dudes named James Stone and Ryan Schraeder have been thrust from anonymity into the starting lineup, but the key might be that Stone, Schraeder, Matthews and reliable veteran guards Jon Asamoah and Justin Blalock have finally been given several consecutive weeks with which to work with one another.
“I really think that they’re starting to come together in regards to understanding what the other guy is going to be doing,” head coach Mike Smith said last week, per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “As I said many times, that unit has to play together as a unit, and there is some cohesion there over the last couple of weeks.”
Now they’ll have a completely unique test with this Green Bay front seven, starting with Matthews in his Where’s Waldo role. Hawk has now basically been benched in favor of second-year man Sam Barrington, who had just 21 career snaps under his belt before Week 7.
Plus, gone are B.J. Raji, Ryan Pickett and Johnny Jolly, who saw the lion’s share of the work along the defensive line last season. Instead, they’ve got Mike Daniels playing at a Pro Bowl level as a three-technique while a potpourri of front-seven cogs -- 2013 first-round pick Datone Jones, 2012 first-rounder Nick Perry and 2010 second-rounder Mike Neal, to name a few -- play fluctuating roles.
Nobody stands out aside from Matthews, assuming you can find him, but the mishmash has been getting the job done, especially since Capers made that big schematic change.
| Packers run defense, 2014 | |||
| Clay Matthews role | Games | YPC allowed (rank) | YPG allowed (rank) |
| At outside linebacker | 8 | 4.8 (29th) | 153.5 (32nd) |
| In new hybrid role | 4 | 3.7 (12th) | 90.0 (10th) |
"We finally seem to be carrying our own weight, in light of how well the offense has been playing," Matthews said last week, per ESPN.com. "It's great to see that we can string these together, and we're not riding the roller coaster that we've done maybe in the first half of the season.”
Given that Capers-led defenses usually gain steam late in the season, you get the feeling the chips will be stacked against the younger Matthews and his peers Monday night.
5. There are running backs in this game, too
Just realized I haven’t mentioned them. Their names are Eddie Lacy and Steven Jackson. They’re often overshadowed by star quarterbacks and receivers and have sometimes been victimized by their offensive lines. One is young (Lacy, 23) and the other is old (Jackson, 31), but both are quietly coming off 100-yard performances from scrimmage. Both also have a lot of hair. See ...
As tempting as it is to get into a “Who wears it better?” I’ll move back to that point regarding their strong Week 13 showings.
The lumbering Lacy picked up 115 yards on 23 touches against New England, but that’s become par for the course. He’s on pace to hit 1,000 yards for the second straight year and has gone over 100 yards from scrimmage in five consecutive weeks.
| Most yards from scrimmage, last 5 games | |
| Player | Total |
| Le'Veon Bell | 751 |
| C.J. Anderson | 709 |
| DeMarco Murray | 698 |
| Eddie Lacy | 667 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 624 |
Meanwhile, that aforementioned cohesion and consistency from the offensive line has benefited the geriatric Jackson (alliteration again intended), who has had 95 or more yards from scrimmage twice in the last four weeks. His 100-yard rushing performance against the Cardinals was his first in over two years.
| Steven Jackson's best performances, last two years | ||
| Date | Opponent | Rushing yards |
| Nov. 30 | Cardinals | 101 |
| Dec. 1, 2013 | Bills | 84 |
| Nov. 9 | Buccaneers | 81 |
| Dec. 23, 2012 | Buccaneers | 81 |
That’s a big deal, because that mighty Arizona defense hadn’t allowed an opposing rusher to hit triple digits in its previous 21 games.
| Most rushing yards vs. Cardinals since 2013 | ||
| Player | Date | Yards |
| Steven Jackson | Nov. 30 | 101 |
| Frank Gore | Oct. 13, 2013 | 101 |
| Marshawn Lynch | Oct. 17, 2013 | 91 |
| Joique Bell | Nov. 16, 2014 | 85 |
Both Lacy and Jackson have a chance to keep rolling Monday night because both of these run defenses rank in the bottom 12 in the NFL. The Packers are one of only five teams that have surrendered more than 4.5 yards per carry, while the Falcons have given up a league-high 15 rushing touchdowns.
6. Green Bay: A rookie hotbed
You think of Rodgers, Lacy, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, as well as Matthews, Peppers and Shields on defense, and it’s easy to view this roster as veteran-heavy. But analysis from Philly.com found that the Packers were actually the sixth-youngest team in the NFL entering this season.
Daniels, Morgan Burnett, Hyde, Lacy and tackles Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari are all 25 or younger, and four of their top six draft picks from May have played significant roles.
The first-rounder: Safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, who in May became the team’s highest draft pick this decade, became a starter in Week 7. He’s still a bit raw but he’s been a dynamo in coverage situations and is coming off somewhat of a breakout performance. His fourth-quarter breakup of a Tom Brady pass for Rob Gronkowski in the end zone might have been a game-saver for the Packers against New England.
The “other” wide receiver: Not Nelson, not Cobb. That “D. Adams” guy you’ve been seeing more frequently in the box scores? His full name is Davante Adams. He’s a second-round pick out of Fresno State who, like Clinton-Dix, is coming off his best game as pro. Adams led all Packers receivers with six catches and 121 yards against the Patriots, but we already had indications “A. Rodgers” was comfortable with him when the quarterback threw his way suddenly after a fake spike earlier this year against Miami.
The “other” Rodgers: The new Rodgers-to-Rodgers connection is just plain fun. Third-round pick Richard Rodgers isn’t yet earning starting reps at tight end, but the California product has two touchdowns in the last two weeks and has been just as involved and productive as starter Andrew Quarless since Week 7.
| Packers tight ends since Week 7 | |||||
| Player | Snaps | Targets | Catches | Yards | TDs |
| Rodgers | 227 | 15 | 11 | 120 | 2 |
| Quarless | 243 | 16 | 11 | 140 | 1 |
The reliable center from out of nowhere: Fifth-round pick Corey Linsley is the only offensive player on the team who hasn’t missed a single snap this season. As expected, he struggled a tad early, but the Ohio State product is now playing as well as anyone in the game at that position.
| Highest-ranked centers since Oct. 1 | |
| Player | PFF grade |
| Nick Mangold | 13.7 |
| Corey Linsley | 12.9 |
| Travis Frederick | 12.6 |
| Chris Myers | 9.2 |
| Max Unger | 9.0 |
7. Milestone alert: Aaron Rodgers makes his 100th start
Monday night, assuming the Packers don’t decide to play Matt Flynn or Scott Tolzien, Rodgers will become the 98th quarterback in NFL history to start 100 games. And if he passes for 293 or more yards, he’ll have more passing yards than any other quarterback through 100 starts (just ahead of Tony Romo).
But he’s probably safe when it comes to having the best all-time touchdown-to-interception ratio through 100 starts. As ESPN.com’s Rob Demovsky points out, “the only way Rodgers could not have the best touchdown-to-interception ratio through 100 starts would be if he threw no touchdowns and 49 interceptions on Monday night against the Falcons.”
Rodgers has never thrown more than three interceptions in a single game, so the chances of him throwing 49 against the Falcons are pretty slim.
This also gives us a chance to compare Rodgers to his Green Bay quarterbacking predecessor, Brett Favre.
| Rodgers vs. Favre through 99 starts | ||
| Statistic | Rodgers | Favre |
| Wins-losses | 67-32 | 67-32 |
| Super Bowls | 1 | 1 |
| Comp. percentage | 66.0 | 61.5 |
| Touchdowns | 219 | 194 |
| Interceptions | 54 | 105 |
| Yards/attempt | 8.3 | 7.1 |
| Rating | 107.1 | 88.9 |
8. A note on the temperature in Green Bay
When you head into Green Bay in December, you’re battling the Packers as well as the elements. I’m guessing a few Falcons have been monitoring this AccuWeather forecast throughout the week:
So we’re looking at freezing temperatures and maybe a little snow at Lambeau, which is something Ryan and the Falcons aren’t used to. Even though the veteran quarterback is a Philadelphia kid who played his college ball in Boston, Ryan told 680 The Fan in Atlanta last week that the coldest game he’s ever played in took place in Green Bay last season.
It does appear as though that’s the case. In fact, according to Pro Football Reference, Ryan has played in only one other game in which the temperature was as low as it will be Monday night, and that was against the Jets back in December 2009.
The Falcons managed just three offensive touchdowns in those two games, with Ryan completing just 52.2 percent of his passes while averaging 5.2 yards per attempt. His passer rating: 75.6.
Meanwhile, the Packers have a 26-11 record in December and January in the Mike McCarthy era. And in temperatures at or below 34 degrees since Boxing Day 2010, they’re 12-1-1.
But it gets better. See, Rodgers didn’t play in the games they lost and tied. He’s personally 10-0 during that stretch and is riding a 12-game winning streak in sub-35-degree temperatures.
| Aaron Rodgers, career based on cold | ||
| Statistic | 35 degrees or warmer | Below 35 degrees |
| Comp. percentage | 66.3 | 64.2 |
| TD-INT ratio | 3.9 | 4.4 |
| Yards/attempt | 8.1 | 8.8 |
| Rating | 105.6 | 110.0 |
Can I take back what I wrote about this being a potential trap game?
9. Advanced stat of the week
Football Outsiders tracks runs based on direction using a formula which takes all carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line. The resultant metric, adjusted line yards, shows that the Falcons would be smart to run left of center Monday night.
Per FO, Atlanta’s offense ranks 4th in the league with 4.56 adjusted line yards per carry behind the left tackle, while Green Bay’s offense ranks 28th in the NFL with 4.83 adjusted line yards per carry allowed on those exact runs.
10. Under-the-radar stats of the week
- The Packers rank 10th in the NFL with a red-zone scoring percentage of 58.3, but they went 0-for-4 last week against the Patriots. McCarthy stated last week that red-zone execution would “definitely be a highlighted emphasis” in practice.
- In their home opener against the Jets, the Packers fell behind 14-3 in the first quarter. Since then, they’ve outscored their competition 79-0 in the first quarter of games at Lambeau Field.
- During the first nine weeks of the season, the Packers missed an average of 8.9 tackles per game. In the last three weeks, that average has dropped to 5.0.
11. Injuries to watch
White (ankle) is questionable for the Falcons, as is Shield (concussion) for Green Bay. Those two could sort of cross each other out, but Atlanta will continue to be without starting cornerback Robert Alford, who dealing with a broken wrist. Marcus Trufant, Robert McClain and Josh Wilson will have their hands extremely full.
12. Totally useless but sometimes fascinating historical notes
Some indisputable facts, most or all of which will have no impact on Monday's game:
- The Packers have beaten the Falcons in their last three matchups, including a 2010 playoff blowout at the Georgia Dome. But Ryan and the Falcons beat Green Bay at Lambeau in October 2008. In fact, that was the first road victory of Ryan’s NFL career.
- Green Bay leads the all-time series 14-12, although the Pack have won nine of 13 all-time meetings at Lambeau.
- Green Bay’s .541 winning percentage ranks seventh among active franchises. Atlanta ranks fourth last (ahead of only Houston, Arizona and Tampa Bay) at .432.
13. But which city is cooler?
In case your team loses, let’s give you a chance to say you live in the cooler metropolis. Just drop this on your football frenemies:
| Which city is cooler? | |||
| Category | Atlanta | Green Bay | Winner |
| Best claim to fame | Peaches, Coca-Cola | The Packers, cheese | Miami |
| Celebrities | Kanye West, Usher, Ryan Seacrest | Tony Shalhoub | Atlanta |
| Hottest celebrity | Keri Hilson | Jessica Szohr (from Milwaukee) | Green Bay |
| Last call | 4 a.m. | 2:30 a.m. | Atlanta |
| Nickname | Hotlanta | Titletown, USA | Green Bay |
| Avg. annual snowfall | 2 inches | 51 inches | Atlanta |
This is, admittedly, completely subjective. Feel free to move on to No. 14.
14. Prediction: The MVP race ends here
It’s been the year of the prime-time blowout, and Rodgers and the Packers are rolling. The 31-year-old quarterback has a highly favorable matchup and everything going his way. I’m expecting him to torch the Atlanta defense while MVP counterparts Tom Brady and Peyton Manning deal with much tougher defenses.
Expect Rodgers to win his second career MVP award in 2014, and look for him to clinch it on Monday night.
Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL since 2007. You can also read his work at Bleacher Report, Awful Announcing and This Given Sunday. In order to sound more professional, he wrote this blurb in the third person. Follow him on Twitter. Or don’t. It’s entirely your choice.
