PHOENIX -- Big 12 athletic directors and coaches will be presented with data Wednesday that shows a significant increase in the likelihood the league would reach the College Football Playoff if it expands to 12 or more teams.
Analytics from Navigate Research are expected to show the Big 12 has at least a 10-15 percent better chance of reaching the CFP in any given year if it expands as opposed to staying in its 10-team configuration.
That percentage at least doubles than the “4-5 percent” improvement commissioner Bob Bowlsby spoke about in Phoenix on Monday. That smaller figure discussed by Bowlsby only included the addition of a conference championship game, CBS Sports has learned.
The particular analysis used by Navigate for Wednesday’s presentation includes expanding the league to 12 with two additional teams, playing an eight-game conference schedule and staging a league championship game. Various expansion candidates were also plugged into simulations Navigate ran 40,000 times.
The most prominent names that continue to be mentioned for expansion include BYU, Central Florida, Cincinnati, UConn, Houston and Memphis.
Navigate is a respected 10-year old Chicago-based firm that has worked with the NFL, Southwest Airlines and several major colleges.
No decision on the future composition of the Big 12 is expected to be made until the league's spring meetings -- May 31 to June 3 in Dallas -- at the earliest.
League coaches and athletic directors are meeting separately this week in Phoenix. Big 12 presidents, who will ultimately make a decision, will be in Dallas later this month.
“The ADs have seen most of it already,” Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby said. “The ADs saw the preliminary work of Navigate work in March. It’s got a few nuances to it.
“The coaches will be seeing it for the first time.”
One of the scheduling models the ADs have been presented includes a possible 16-team Big 12. Bowlsby called that “mostly an academic [unlikely] undertaking.”
While the new data seems to suggest it would be in the 10-team conference’s best interest to expand, one league source called the existing analytics “statistically insignificant.”
If nothing else, expansion would provide a “buffer” of members if schools leave in the future.
“I think the head coaches are kind of concerned because they want what’s right for everyone,” Texas coach Charlie Strong said.
There seems to be an issue in even cutting the conference schedule from nine to eight. That move alone would most likely require a renegotiating of the media rights deal with ESPN and Fox, which lasts through the 2024-25 academic year.
One of the original reasons the Big 12 stayed together five years ago during conference realignment was the implementation of a nine-game conference schedule. Adding that extra game provided more inventory (games) for those networks.
Conference games, especially those that include Oklahoma and Texas as the most watched teams, are more profitable than nonconference games.
Adding a fourth nonconference game might also be counterproductive to schedule strength. One Big 12 source said it has become much tougher in general to schedule nonconference “guarantee” games. The source expects that trend to continue as more schools like Idaho drop out of FBS.
Oklahoma AD Joe Castiglione said such a model “would create additional pressure to find a fourth game that would be compelling. The world has changed.”
Bowlsby reiterated that a decision -- whatever it is -- needs to be made this year. The league added West Virginia and TCU to complete its current roster of 10 in 2012.
“The good news is the last time we added members we didn’t have the same urgency,” Bowlsby said. “I just think we need to act expediently.”
