Notre Dame has been losing ground for a while.
That conclusion has less to do with any criticism of its recruiting, talent or coaching; rather, it's referring to college football’s evolving realization.
The sport has become bigger than what was once college football’s flagship program. The implications, as you will see, are obvious. Start with a crying need for Notre Dame to join a conference sooner than later.
College football needed the clout of Notre Dame to from the old College Football Association in breaking away from the NCAA television monopoly in the 1980s. It needed Notre Dame to crown a legitimate champion when the Bowl Championship Series kicked off in 1998.
But by 2006, a conscious decision was made by the commissioners who ran the BCS to reduce Notre Dame's access from a top 12 finish to one in the top eight. They figured out that the BCS was more significant than Notre Dame’s involvement in it. Special access began to erode.
That’s a big reason why the Irish enter Year 2 of the College Football Playoff with an increasingly loosening grip on independence. The once furiously football indie has lost leverage.
They may not know it or even admit it. Notre Dame is still believed to be the only unranked team in AP history to lose its opener and become ranked the next week (1986 to Michigan). Long gone are the days when the Irish “earned” a trip to the Fiesta Bowl in 1994 at 6-4-1.
At one point, Notre Dame was being paid more than $1 million per year by the BCS in seasons when it didn’t qualify for BCS bowls.
Consider that in 2015 it continues to have no automatic access to a New Year’s Six bowl. Yes, 12-0 is just about a sure thing but Notre Dame still has to be voted into the top four by the selection committee. There is no conference title to win that automatically qualifies it for any New Year’s Six game.
Only two other FBS programs share that distinction -- fellow independents Army and BYU. That seems so common.
Yes, the tipping point for Notre Dame independence is upon us. Try to imagine the Blue and Gold fallout if the Irish merely lose once and are left out of the playoff.
It could happen. It essentially did happen to TCU and Baylor last season. The Big 12 wigged out because it was left out. Who does Notre Dame complain to? Maybe a look in the mirror is in order.
In case you haven’t noticed, it’s a new age when conference membership matters more and Notre Dame matters less.
Potentially malleable sportswriters buying into the Notre Dame mystique with their votes are a thing of the past. The human polls are essentially meaningless.
The only minds that need to be influenced are the 13 folks on that CFP Selection Committee. They would have to consider that only six teams in Irish history have won at least 11 games. None finished ranked lower than fourth. Irish teams in 1973, 1977 and 1988 won national championships. In 1989 and 1993, Notre Dame finished No. 2. They were undefeated in 2012 before a BCS title game loss.
They’d also have to consider the walls closing in from all angles.
Speaking about Notre Dame with CBS Sports, Missouri coach Gary Pinkel related the following. “If you’re all going to be competing to be in the top four, it would be good if everybody was in leagues with championship games. That’s common sense to me.”
The CFP -- just like the BCS before it -- has become bigger than the Irish. A lot of it has do with failing to live up to its mystique. But a lot of teams don’t win like they used to. Notre Dame was one of only 15 teams to play for a BCS title from 1998-2013.
It should not go unnoticed that Notre Dame adjusted to that postseason landscape instead of the other way around. In the age of the playoff, it had to partner with the ACC just to have some sort of access to the new postseason.
Notre Dame enters the second year of an ACC regular-scheduling deal in which it had access to the conference’s roster of bowls. Tradition, sometimes, be damned. For the first time since 1932, the Irish won’t play at least two Big Ten teams.
That agreement includes a sliver of an opportunity to play the ACC champion in the Orange Bowl a maximum of twice in 12 years -- only when there is no other Big Ten or SEC team ranked higher than the Irish.
Forget 11-1 and a playoff berth for a moment. Simple math tells you the Irish will be questionable this season for a New Year’s Six bowl at 10-2. There’s the possibility of there being only two available spots in 2015 -- one each in the Peach and Fiesta Bowls.
The other 10 spots would be taken up the four playoff teams as well as representatives from the SEC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12, ACC and the automatic Group of Five team.
It’s entirely possible that Boise State gets a guaranteed spot at 10-2. With the same record, Notre Dame could be left wishing.
That scenario alone is why the Irish will finally join a conference sooner rather than later. Don’t ask me how that lucrative NBC contract would be folded in. That’s fine print.
If Notre Dame made the all-in call to ACC commissioner John Swofford tomorrow, the details would be worked out pronto. As it stands, being half pregnant in the ACC isn’t enough. Being left out is too much.
This column would not have been written unless that tipping point was imminent. Notre Dame is supposed to be good in 2015. It is 10th in the CBS Sports Preseason 128 Rankings.
Good on Brian Kelly. Good on the school which holds its athletes to a lofty academic standard.
But in a way, Notre Dame isn’t in control of its future. The conferences basically rule the landscape with their major-bowl partnerships. Only the Big 12 doesn’t play a conference championship game.In 2014, that extra game was the difference for Ohio State. The Buckeyes slipped into the top four on Pick ‘Em Day by clowning Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game. This year, Notre Dame’s season will have been over for eight days when the selection committee picks the field on Dec. 6.
After 127 seasons and 1,234 games, the next 12 games in Season No. 128 may leave the most lasting impression for the Irish.
