We knew there'd be a lot of changes to the College Football Playoff Rankings this week, and the CFP Selection Committee did not disappoint.
With three more undefeated teams (Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Houston) falling by the wayside over the weekend, we now have two new teams in the top four, as both Oklahoma and Iowa work their way in, replacing Ohio State and Notre Dame.
So what did the committee get wrong? What did it get right? Let's discuss.
Overrated -- No. 3 Oklahoma: So let me get this straight. Last week, Oklahoma was ranked No. 7 by the committee. Then Saturday came, and Oklahoma played host to then-No. 18 TCU -- a TCU team that was without its Heisman hopeful starting quarterback in Trevone Boykin and without its other top playmaker on offense, wide receiver Josh Doctson.
Oklahoma then went out and managed to beat the Horned Frogs 30-29, blowing a 23-7 lead and needing to stop a two-point conversion in the final seconds to ward off defeat. And that performance, the one where the Sooners squeaked by the injured Horned Frogs, that was the performance that the committee saw and said, "That's enough to move this team up four spots!"
I get that it's looking at the résumé as a whole, but here are Oklahoma's three best wins on the season: No. 7 Baylor, No. 19 TCU and 7-4 Tennessee. Oh, and its lone defeat was a 24-17 loss to a 4-6 Texas team. Gee, if only I could find another team with a stronger résumé ...
Underrated -- No. 5 Michigan State: Here's a crazy fact about the Spartans this season. They've now beaten both No. 8 Ohio State and No. 10 Michigan on the road without ever actually leading in either game until time expired. But they beat them both all the same.
And though it took place a long time ago in September, Michigan State also beat No. 17 Oregon. Its sole loss came in the final seconds -- in controversial fashion -- against a 5-6 Nebraska team, as Sparty ended up on the wrong side of a 39-38 score.
So let's see. Oklahoma's second-best win is currently ranked No. 19. Michigan State's third-best win is ranked above that at No. 17, and its loss was a one-point loss on the road, compared to Oklahoma's seven-point loss to a team with a worse record, on a neutral field. I'm guessing that the committee's justification for putting Oklahoma over Michigan State will be game control, it's just, I'm starting to wonder if game control is actually code for "better television ratings."
Just Right -- No. 6 Notre Dame: The Irish deserved to drop, and that's just what happened. They had been holding on to that No. 4 spot, but their grip was always tenuous at best, and right now their best win is either No. 15 Navy or No. 25 Temple. They aren't bad wins, but they don't really compare with the wins of teams above Notre Dame. That close loss to No. 1 Clemson can only carry so much weight.
Plus, the fact of the matter is that the Irish have looked very underwhelming the past couple of weeks against inferior opponents. And with all the injuries the team has suffered, you have to think that affected the ranking too. The good news for Notre Dame, however, is that it still gets a game with No. 9 Stanford, and if it wins that, its résumé becomes a bit stronger.
Overrated -- No. 12 Florida: I was half-expecting Florida to still be in the top 10, and I was going to get really angry about it. Thankfully the committee had the sense to drop Florida out of the top 10, but it didn't drop the Gators far enough, in my opinion. The best thing Florida has going for it right now is the fact it's 10-1, which we shouldn't dismiss outright.
It's just, have you seen this team lately? And have you taken a closer look at its résumé as of late? That 38-10 win over No. 18 Ole Miss doesn't look as great as it did then, and the Gators lost to an LSU team that has fallen off the map. More important than that in my mind, however, is what's Florida's second-most impressive win? The one-point win over Tennessee? The 27-3 win over the rotting carcass that was Georgia (remember Faton Bauta?) at the time? It certainly isn't the close calls against Vanderbilt or Florida Atlantic. Nor was it a 10-point win over South Carolina.
Honestly, I look at the current CFP Rankings and I see about six or seven teams ranked below Florida that I think would beat the Gators right now.
Underrated -- No. 11 Oklahoma State: So last week, Oklahoma State was 10-0 and ranked No. 6 following a 20-point win over TCU and a comeback win against Iowa State. Then, after a 10-point loss to No. 7 Baylor, the Cowboys drop five spots to No. 11. Behind not one, but two teams that have two losses.
That doesn't bother me as much as the fact that a 20-point win over TCU isn't enough to keep a 10-1 Oklahoma State in the top 10, but a one-point win over TCU is enough to launch a 10-1 Oklahoma up to No. 3. I get that Oklahoma has a better overall schedule than the Cowboys thanks to that Tennessee win, but I still don't think that's enough of a justification to place such a wide gap between the two.
Must be more of that "game control."
