On July 1, Navy officially joined the American Athletic Conference, giving the conference a new two-division look and adding one of the game's most historically relevant programs to its lineup.
Now that Midshipmen are no longer an independent, they'll be judged in a new way with the standings and conference pecking order playing a role in how we judge the success, or lack thereof, in a particular season.
"Joining the American Athletic Conference has given us another goal," said Navy head football coach Ken Niumatalolo. "Now, not only do we have the Commander-In-Chief's Trophy to play for, but a conference championship as well. I do know there are very good football teams in this league and it's going to be a huge challenge for our program. Every week we will have a tough opponent to play."
With the move made official on Wednesday we ask: What are Navy's chances to win the American in 2015?
Contrasting styles in the West Division: For starters, let's review the divisional alignment in the American with Navy in the mix:
| 2015 AAC Divisions | |
| East | West |
| UCF | Houston |
| Cincinnati | Memphis |
| UConn | Navy |
| ECU | SMU |
| USF | Tulane |
| Temple | Tulsa |
The AAC West received a jolt of offense this past offseason with the addition of three prominent coordinators. Tom Herman (Houston) is coming off a national title run with Ohio State and inherits a team ready to compete for a title right away, while former Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris (SMU) and former Baylor offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery (Tulsa) have some rebuilding years ahead. All three coordinators preferred to play fast at their last stop, and Memphis was one of only 21 teams with more than 1,000 snaps on the season last year.
This could play into Navy's hands with Kennan Reynolds, the NCAA record holder for most rushing touchdowns by a quarterback (64), leading an option attack that could keep the opposition out of a rhythm with long, plodding drives. On the other hand, a team like Houston has already shown, before the arrival of Tom Herman, the ability to score points in bunches. Navy can keep games close by controlling the pace, but scoring in a hurry could be a problem.
Oddsmakers' Thoughts: 5Dimes has Navy's over/under win total set at 7.5. With Colgate and Army penciled in as presumed wins and Notre Dame as a loss (I'm reading the Air Force game as a toss-up), it seems the oddsmakers are guessing a 5-3 or 6-2 finish for Navy in conference play. UConn, ECU and USF is a pretty manageable slate from the other division, but getting Houston and Memphis both on the road makes it seem unlikely to finish on top of the standings and earn a bid to the league's first conference title game.
For the big picture, check out the conference's odds:
| AAC Odds (via 5Dimes) | |
| Team | Odds |
| Cincinnati | +260 |
| Memphis | +350 |
| Temple | +400 |
| UCF | +700 |
| Houston | +825 |
| ECU | +900 |
| Navy | +1300 |
| Tulane | +3700 |
| Tulsa | +4000 |
| SMU | +5000 |
| USF | +5500 |
| UConn | +8000 |
Outlook: I'm going to side with the oddsmakers here in guessing that Navy's odds to come in and win the American in year one are not good. However, it does seem that the Midshipmen are on the last step before a very steep drop in terms of the league's pecking order. Keenan Reynolds will rack up the stats, for sure, and that option attack has a chance to keep games close into the third and fourth quarter.
