There are preseason rankings for the 2015-16 season readily available -- including right here. And it's never too hard to find a list of college basketball's historically great programs. But which schools are best positioned, at this moment, to succeed over the next five years?
That's a more complex list to create -- if only because it's rooted in longterm projections.
Is the coaching situation solid?
What kind of young players are enrolled now?
Is recruiting headed in the right direction or not?
Here at CBSSports.com we decided to have some fun this week and tackle these questions from a variety of angles. So I got with my colleagues Matt Norlander, Chip Patterson and Sam Vecenie, and together we tried to identify three things:
- The 15 programs best positioned to succeed over the next five years.
- The program best positioned to succeed in each state over the next five years.
- The 10 states best positioned to have the best basketball over the next five years.
Sounds interesting, right?
So let's get started with the opening installment of this three-part series ...
The 15 programs best positioned to succeed over the next five years
Outlook: Those closest to Mike Krzyzewski, five years ago, mostly seemed to believe the end was relatively near, that the Hall of Fame coach might step away after the 2016 Summer Olympics and call it a career. But now almost nobody thinks the iconic figure is close to retirement, and you can reasonably argue his program has never been in better shape. The Blue Devils are coming off of a national championship, somewhat reloaded already and likely to eventually sign the nation's top-ranked recruiting class in 2016. Simply put, things are rolling right now. And, if you're wondering, all four of us ranked Duke No. 1 for this list.
Outlook: One of the only programs that could reasonably be placed ahead of Duke is Kentucky, and for all the obvious reasons. The Wildcats have made four of the past five Final Fours, the roster currently in place is arguably the nation's best, John Calipari seems more likely than not to remain in college basketball and thus not jump to the NBA, and there's no reason to believe recruiting will be an issue going forward, if only because recruiting is never an issue for Calipari.
Outlook: The Jayhawks should win a 12th straight Big 12 championship this season, and, like Duke and Kentucky, they have a coach who has already assembled a career worthy of the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame (and doesn't appear to be going anywhere any time soon). What Bill Self has done at Kansas is nothing short of amazing, and I really don't think we'll ever see one program string this many consecutive league titles in a power-five conference again.
Outlook: Sean Miller has signed a top-six recruiting class each of the past five years, according to 247Sports, and won the Pac-12 each of the past two seasons while making the Elite Eight both times. Translation: Miller is dominating west of the Mississippi, and the only thing that could derail what he has going at Arizona would be if an A-level job opened east of the Mississippi and made an offer that lured him closer to his Pennsylvania roots.
Outlook: What Sean Miller is doing at Arizona isn't too unlike what Tony Bennett is doing at Virginia -- the only difference being that it's much harder to dominate the ACC than the Pac-12. Still, on some level, Bennett is doing it. He's won two straight ACC titles and would likely have the nation's preseason No. 1 team had Justin Anderson returned for another year of college. Meanwhile, UVA has the third-best recruiting class in the country committed at this moment, according to 247Sports. So there's reason to think the Cavaliers will remain strong.
Outlook: The Zags have won at least 25 games in eight consecutive seasons -- the result of which is seven West Coast Conference titles and 17 straight trips to the NCAA Tournament. Whether they'll ever make a Final Four remains up for debate. But Gonzaga, under Mark Few, is always part of the national conversation, and all the evidence suggests that's not changing soon.
Outlook: Rick Pitino's contract runs through 2026. And though that obviously guarantees nothing, we believe it's more likely than not that the Hall of Fame coach will coach Louisville for at least five more seasons, meaning one of the nation's best programs should have one of the nation's best coaches for at least the next five seasons. And that's always a good combination.
Outlook: In a vacuum, UNC should be higher on this list because, well, it's UNC. But the lingering NCAA issues have hampered recruiting, and it's difficult to say whether Roy Williams will coach the Tar Heels for another five years. That said, the Tar Heels might win a national championship this season, and even if Williams were to retire soon UNC would almost certainly replace him with a star because, again, it's UNC. And this program is arguably the nation's easiest to rebuild for any competent man. So, when weighing all those things, eighth on this list seems about right.
Outlook: Michigan State's ranking on this list is rooted in the same things that Louisville's ranking on this list is rooted in, i.e., the combination of a top-shelf coach working at a top-shelf program. The next time Tom Izzo has a bad team will be the first time in roughly 20 years. He's just about as reliable as they come.
Outlook: The Buckeyes have been to seven consecutive NCAA Tournaments thanks to high-level recruiting and a coach, Thad Matta, who is exceptional and still in his 40s. Yes, it's been two years since Ohio State made four straight Sweet Sixteens. But that's more of a testament to what Matta accomplished then than it is evidence that his program has slipped in any real way.
Outlook: Texas is the only school on this list with a first-year coach, and this ranking is tied to the idea that we believe Shaka Smart will be good enough to take advantage of all of UT's resources. In other words, the bet here is that Smart will, soon enough, return the Longhorns to a place where they are, one way or another, consistently competing with Kansas atop the Big 12.
Outlook: Mark Turgeon has a preseason top-five team and the 11th-best recruiting class in the country committed right now, according to 247Sports. So whatever early bumps he endured in College Park suddenly seem behind him, and the Terrapins are likely to remain a Big Ten power.
Outlook: There was a time a few years back, after three straight double-digit-loss seasons, when some were wondering whether Jay Wright's program was slipping. But that time has passed. He's now won back-to-back Big East titles and is projected to win a third straight this season. So Wright, who is still just 53 years old, seems set to keep the Wildcats nationally relevant.
Outlook: Wichita State's incredible financial commitment to one of the nation's very best coaches seems to suggest Gregg Marshall might really retire at the school, which would make it dumb to keep the Shockers off this list. He has a chance to turn Wichita State into the Gonzaga of the MVC, and he appears well on his way to doing exactly that.
Outlook: Similar to the way Rich Rodriguez has revitalized his football-coaching career at Arizona after being fired at Michigan, Mark Gottfried has revitalized his basketball-coaching career at N.C. State after being fired at Alabama. He's made the NCAA Tournament four straight years and is expected to enroll a great recruiting class in time for the 2016-17 season. So the Wolfpack should be competitive with their neighbors/rivals for at least the foreseeable future.
