Here at CBSSports.com, our goal is to help you with your bracket. One of the parts of your bracket that's always the most difficult to predict is first-round upsets. Let us help you out with that.
Here are the five most likely major upsets I see in the first round. For this purpose, we'll define a major upset as a No. 12 or lower over a No. 5 or better.
5. No. 13 Valparaiso over No. 4 Maryland
Reasons to pick the upset: Maryland has been one of the most fortunate teams in America this season, winning 10 of its 11 games decided by six points or fewer. Now, part of that is due to the presence of Melo Trimble, a terrific free-throw shooter who can close out games at the line. But still, they would not be expected to win over 90 percent of their games within two possessions. So maybe Maryland's patten of good fortune combined with solid late-game execution runs out here?
There's also the matchup against Valparaiso, which is a bit interesting. Maryland is an average defensive rebounding team and a poor offensive rebounding team. The Crusaders do a good job of controlling the glass on both ends. The Terps' defense also doesn't force turnovers or steals, which is the place where the Crusaders tend to struggle most on offense. So if the Crusaders can control the boards and limit turnovers, they would probably be halfway home to an upset. It would just come down to making shots against the more athletic Terps. Given that Valpo knocked down 38 percent of its 3-point attempts this year, I might take my chances on that.
Reasons to pick the favorite: Maryland has a really good perimeter-based player -- Jake Layman -- to match up with Valparaiso's terrific stretch-four Alec Peters. If Layman can control that matchup against Peters and slow him down with his mix of size and athleticism, Valpo would need other guys to step up who might not be able to do so. Also, simply put, Maryland is an extremely athletic, talented team. The Crusaders haven't seen a backcourt this season (sorry, Green Bay and Keifer Sykes) that can match the Terps' ability to get into the lane and make plays. The question will be whether Trimble and Dez Wells can finish over Vashil Fernandez or get him into foul trouble, as he has turned into an excellent rim protector. Given that I think there is a strong chance the Terps can neutralize the Crusaders' advantage inside, this is a tough one to call.
4. No. 12 Buffalo over No. 5 West Virginia
Reasons to pick the upset: West Virginia isn't exactly coming into this one riding a hot streak. Bob Huggins' group has lost three of its past four games (albeit to Baylor twice and Kansas once) and hasn't won a game by double-digits since January. So I think you can expect this one to be up in the air going into the final minutes at the very least. Plus, Buffalo is for real, pure and simple. The Bulls under Bobby Hurley gave Kentucky a game earlier this season and also played within 12 points of Wisconsin. This is one of the best mid-majors in the country, and it has one of the best mid-major players in Justin Moss.
Regarding the matchup, the key here is that Buffalo does not turn the ball over. The Bulls finished 35th nationally in turnover rate, which is a key against the swarming, high-pressure West Virginia defense. Plus, given that they play at the 20th-highest tempo of anyone nationally, they're not going to feel sped up by the Mountaineers' pace. Limiting turnovers and points in transition is a key against West Virginia, which can really struggle to score without those easy points.
Reasons to pick the favorite: Offensive rebounding. I'm not sure the Bulls can keep up with the Mountaineers on the glass, as West Virginia is the fourth-best offensive rebounding team in the country, swarming the offensive glass with Devin Williams, Jonathan Holton, Brandon Watkins and Elijah Macon. The Mountaineers get a ton of points off of put-backs and second chances, which could pose some issues for the somewhat undersized Bulls, who finished eighth in defensive rebounding in the MAC. That might be the Bulls' fatal flaw in an upset bid.
3. No. 13 Eastern Washington over No. 4 Georgetown
Reasons to pick the upset: Tyler Harvey. Period. Harvey is the nation's leading scorer at 23.1 points per game, and when his shot is falling the Eagles can beat all but the elite teams in the country. He's knocking down 43 percent of his 3s, and the ability to shoot the 3 is a massive weapon in games like this. Also, he's not alone on the floor. Venky Jois is one of the most efficient big men in the country and he has stepped up in big moments (such as his 20/14/5 game against Indiana or his 23/6 against Cal). Given their ability to score in a variety of different ways from a bunch of different sources -- along with their ability to get hot from 3-point range, as they're probably one of the top three teams in the country at utilizing it -- this is a solid candidate for an upset.
Also, there's the idea that Georgetown is ripe for an upset, just like in the past. The Hoyas haven't gotten into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament since 2007, and have lost to a double-digit seed the past five times they've reached the field since that '07 Final Four run. Simply put, the track record here is not great, and given that the Hoyas seem to be an over-seeded No. 4, there could be another one on the way.
Reasons to pick the favorite: Eastern Washington has no one to rely on to guard Joshua Smith in the post. With no rotation players being bigger than the 6-foot-8, 230-pound Jois, Smith may be able to get whatever he wants. In that vein, the Eagles are among the worst defensive teams in the field, with an adjusted defensive rating of 107.7 on KenPom, which is 5.6 points higher than the national average. Finally, Georgetown has some athletic wings it can deploy to try to slow down Harvey in Jabril Trawick (who should get the main assignment), L.J. Peak and even someone like Isaac Copeland if they want to use some size. That might be enough to slow down the Eagles on offense to get the win.
2. No. 13 UC-Irvine over No. 4 Louisville
Reasons to pick the upset: This is kind of a matchup nightmare on offense for Louisville, a team that has struggled to space the floor all season. The Cardinals are shooting 30 percent from 3-point range and have relied upon their ability to finish at the rim in order to score on offense, as they're shooting 66 percent at the bucket this year. That's going to be immensely difficult against the Anteaters, who feature the services of 7-6 center Mamadou Ndiaye.
Coach Russell Turner puts Ndiaye in the center of a 2-3 zone defense. The zone alone makes it tough for teams to get dribble penetration. But even if they do get past that first line of defense, Ndiaye is there waiting for them at the rim, and there is not a better rim protector in the country. Despite Ndiaye missing a large portion of the middle of this season, the Anteaters finished 18th in field-goal percentage against at the rim nationally after topping that category last season -- Ndiaye's first in Irvine. I'm just not sure how the Cardinals are going to get efficient scoring opportunities in this game. That, along with the Anteaters' ability to bomb away from deep, should at least keep them in it the majority of the way.
Reason to pick the favorite: Louisville is still Louisville, and Rick Pitino will likely try to devise an up-tempo scheme that involves the Cardinals getting out into transition and trying to score before the Anteaters can set up on defense. And for just as many problems as Louisville figures to have on offense, Irvine will likely have the same problem. The Anteaters struggle to score inside, and Louisville's interior defense has been strong this season. Basically, this game will likely come down to whether or not UC-Irvine can make some shots from beyond the arc. If that happens, it can win. If not, Louisville will pull it out.
1. No. 12 Stephen F. Austin over No. 5 Utah
Reasons to pick the upset: The Utes stumbled worse down the stretch than any other No. 5 seed or higher, losing four of their final seven games. The defense, which was a strength of this team this season, struggled late in allowing at least one point per possession in five of those seven games. That's going to be a problem against Stephen F. Austin, a meticulous buzzsaw of offensive efficiency that finished 10th in overall offensive efficiency this season. Thomas Walkup and Jacob Parker are two of the most efficient scorers in America, with true shooting percentages above 64 percent.
Plus, this game will be played at the Lumberjacks' pace, which should allow for an early comfort level. And to top it off, this team has more experience than Utah at playing tournament basketball. The Lumberjacks beat VCU last March before UCLA ran them off the floor in the Round of 32. Stephen F. Austin is also playing as well as anyone in the country, having won 28 of its previous 29 games. And Brad Underwood is one of the best coaches in America, having won 62 of his first 69 career games, better than any other before him in his first two seasons.
Reasons to pick the favorite: Full-season performance is usually a better indicator of tournament success than recent results, and Utah has that going for it in spades. The Utes were in the top 12 of the polls for a majority of the season, and for good reason. They're one of seven teams in the top 20 of both of KenPom's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings this season. Plus, with Delon Wright in the fold they'll have one of the five best players in the country on their team, and that might just be enough to get the job done.
