Providence guard Kris Dunn has had a fascinating career path to this point.
A consensus five-star recruit, Dunn was the top point guard in the high school class of 2012. However, shoulder injuries in each of his first two seasons only allowed him to appear in 29 games. Shoulder surgery in December of 2013 forced Dunn out of action for the entirety of the 2014 season, and left his father questioning the way the Friars handled the injury.
Fast-forward to this season, and Dunn has an argument as not only the best player in the Big East Conference, but also the best point guard in the country. He's currently averaging 15.5 points and 7.4 assists per game, the latter of which is good for fourth in the country. His peripheral numbers are even better, as he's scoring at an efficient 56 true-shooting percent and actually leads the NCAA in assist rate at 49.9 percent. That assist rate would be the third-best percentage in the past 10 seasons, and the best for a major conference player since the 2004-05 season when Travis Diener notched a 53.3 rate. Oh, plus he's 20th nationally in steal rate.
It's not just pure statistical accumulation that makes Dunn an NBA prospect though. His physical profile is extemely intriguing at 6-foot-3 with a 6-foot-8 wingspan, meaning he has pretty prototypical size for the point guard position in the NBA. His lightning-quick first step and excellent ball-handling ability allows him to get penetration basically at will on the college level, and that should be able to translate to the NBA level. Once he's in the lane, he has a pretty good pull-up game that includes a nice litttle floater as well as the ability to knock down a midrange shot from 10 feet, plus has the ability to explode to the rim and dunk or finish with either hand. When putting that into conjunction with his clearly superb vision, there's enough there to make Dunn a first-round pick. Then throw in the fact that he's going to be a first-team All-Big East defensive team member that uses his length to cause opposing guards all kinds of problems? Dunn could rise all the way to the lottery by the end of the process.
He doesn't come without questions, though. His jump shot needs to improve, as he's only knocking down 32 percent of his 43 attempts from 3. Also, turnovers are a very real problem, as he's second nationally with 87 of them. Plus, there are the shoulder concerns that knocked him out of action for two years. I'm not a doctor though, so I can't speak to that. Needless to say, it'll be a talking point if he leaves.
Still though, his prospects align similarly to the way Elfrid Payton's did last season. Payton was an awesome athlete that defended, passed, and finished really well on the college level, yet also struggled a bit with turnovers. Dunn has a couple more questions than Payton did due to the shoulder injury and a slightly worse ability to finish at the rim, but the two are largely similar players that could end up taking a similar trajectory throughout the course of draft season. That's why I've moved Dunn to No. 26 on my big board currently.
Other notes on my board:
- I've moved D'Angelo Russell to fourth on my board, and he's pulled about even with the Karl Towns and Emmanuel Mudiay tier. Any three of those guys could end up being the second-best prospect in this draft by the end of the process behind Jahlil Okafor, who is still the clear top player.
- There's also been a bit of a mix-up in the late first round point guard shuffle. Jerian Grant has pulled ahead of Delon Wright. Wright has really struggled in his past few games going against NBA-level defenders. Arizona's Rondae Hollis-Jefferson held him to 10 points and seven assists with four turnovers. Washington's zone defense and Nigel Williams-Goss held Wright to five points on 1-6 shooting, and UCLA largely held Wright in check until the final five minutes on Thursday. The entire key behind Wright's game is getting penetration. If he's unable to do that against the better NCAA defenders, it could bode poorly for his draft prospects. I still have him as a late first-rounder, but with a few more concerns than I have had in the past.
- The player who was responsible for holding Wright in check at UCLA was Norman Powell, who is just a terrific defensive player and athlete. He's also starting to become more assertive slashing to the hoop, having scored at least 22 points in four of his last five games. The key to his offensive game in the NBA will be improving his jump shot just a bit, but I've seen enough of him on defense to comfortably slot him into the top-50.
- Jake Layman also moves into the top-50, as I've become more convinced having watched more of him that he'll be able to find a place in the NBA on defense. His jump shot is solid, his offensive instincts are really strong, and his athleticism is explosive vertically, and at least solid laterally. The biggest thing he needs to show at this point is enough ball-handling to comfortably attack overzealous close-outs in the NBA. If he can do that, he has a shot to rise into my top-30 and become a first-rounder. He'll be a system prospect regardless, but I like his odds more than I did in the past.
- Finally, a couple of VCU notes. Let's start with the negative then end on a positive note. First, Briante Weber -- currently slotted at No. 83 -- tore his ACL, MCL and meniscus yesterday. However, this draft list was finalized on Friday night, which means I have not taken his injury into account on this board. He will likely drop off on the next iteration, as there are just too many questions regarding how that will affect his athleticism and quickness on the next level. Plus, he won't be able to work out for teams by the time draft season begins. And that makes me absolutely sick to my stomach, as Weber is one of my favorite college basketball players ever. Speedy recovery, Briante.
- Second, Treveon Graham moves into the top-70. He's 6-foot-6 with a 6-9 wingpsan that has the athleticism to likely defend both wing positions in the NBA. Plus, he's knocking down 42 percent of his 5.3 3-point attempts per game. That's really impressive, and he could easily become a solid 3-and-D player in the NBA if things go right for him and he lands in a good spot.
| 2015 NBA Draft Prospect Rankings | ||||||
| Rank | Player | School | Year | POS | HGT | WGT |
| 1 | Jahlil Okafor | Duke | Fr. | C | 6-11 | 270 |
| 2 | Karl-Anthony Towns | Kentucky | Fr. | PF | 6-11 | 255 |
| 3 | Emmanuel Mudiay | China | - | PG | 6-5 | 200 |
| 4 | D'Angelo Russell | Ohio State | Fr. | SG | 6-5 | 180 |
| 5 | Stanley Johnson | Arizona | Fr. | SF | 6-7 | 245 |
| 6 | Willie Cauley-Stein | Kentucky | Jr. | C | 7-0 | 242 |
| 7 | Kristaps Porzingis | Latvia | - | PF | 6-11 | 220 |
| 8 | Justise Winslow | Duke | Fr. | SF | 6-6 | 225 |
| 9 | Kevon Looney | UCLA | Fr. | PF | 6-9 | 220 |
| 10 | Myles Turner | Texas | Fr. | C | 6-11 | 240 |
| 11 | Kelly Oubre Jr. | Kansas | Fr. | SF | 6-7 | 200 |
| 12 | Frank Kaminsky | Wisconsin | Sr. | C | 7-0 | 242 |
| 13 | Trey Lyles | Kentucky | Fr. | PF | 6-10 | 235 |
| 14 | Mario Hezonja | Croatia | - | SG | 6-7 | 195 |
| 15 | Devin Booker | Kentucky | Fr. | SG | 6-6 | 206 |
| 16 | Cliff Alexander | Kansas | Fr. | PF | 6-8 | 240 |
| 17 | Montrezl Harrell | Louisville | Jr. | PF-C | 6-8 | 240 |
| 18 | Caris LeVert | Michigan | Jr. | SG | 6-6 | 185 |
| 19 | Bobby Portis | ARK | Soph. | PF | 6-11 | 242 |
| 20 | Jakob Poeltl | Utah | Fr. | PF | 7-0 | 235 |
| 21 | Jerian Grant | ND | Sr. | PG | 6-5 | 204 |
| 22 | Delon Wright | Utah | Sr. | PG | 6-5 | 190 |
| 23 | R.J. Hunter | Georgia State | Jr. | SG | 6-6 | 190 |
| 24 | Christian Wood | UNLV | Soph. | PF | 6-11 | 220 |
| 25 | Sam Dekker | Wisconsin | Jr. | SF | 6-9 | 230 |
| 26 | Kris Dunn | Providence | Soph. | PG | 6-3 | 205 |
| 27 | Dakari Johnson | Kentucky | Soph. | C | 7-0 | 255 |
| 28 | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Arizona | Soph. | SF | 6-7 | 220 |
| 29 | James Blackmon Jr. | Indiana | Fr. | SG | 6-4 | 195 |
| 30 | Tyus Jones | Duke | Fr. | PG | 6-1 | 190 |
| 31 | Rashad Vaughn | UNLV | Fr. | SG | 6-6 | 210 |
| 32 | Domantas Sabonis | Gonzaga | Fr. | PF | 6-10 | 231 |
| 33 | Justin Anderson | Virginia | Jr. | SF | 6-6 | 228 |
| 34 | Amida Brimah | Connecticut | Soph. | C | 7-0 | 230 |
| 35 | Justin Jackson | North Carolina | Fr. | SF | 6-8 | 193 |
| 36 | Robert Upshaw | Washington | Jr. | C | 7-0 | 250 |
| 37 | Demetrius Jackson | Notre Dame | Soph. | PG | 6-1 | 198 |
| 38 | Buddy Hield | Oklahoma | Jr. | SG | 6-4 | 212 |
| 39 | Damian Jones | Vanderbilt | Soph. | PF | 6-10 | 248 |
| 40 | Ron Baker | WICHST | Jr. | PG | 6-4 | 220 |
| 41 | Melo Trimble | Maryland | Fr. | PG | 6-3 | 190 |
| 42 | Brice Johnson | North Carolina | Jr. | PF | 6-9 | 228 |
| 43 | Aleksandar Vezenkov | Bulgaria | Fr. | SF | 6-8 | 210 |
| 44 | Tyler Ulis | Kentucky | Fr. | PG | 5-9 | 155 |
| 45 | Jordan Mickey | LSU | Soph. | PF | 6-8 | 235 |
| 46 | Mouhammadou Jaiteh | France | - | C | 6-11 | 249 |
| 47 | J.P. Tokoto | North Carolina | Jr. | SF | 6-6 | 200 |
| 48 | Jake Layman | Maryland | Jr. | SF | 6-9 | 205 |
| 49 | Norman Powell | UCLA | Sr. | SG | 6-4 | 215 |
| 50 | Troy Williams | Indiana | Soph. | SF | 6-7 | 215 |
| 51 | Terry Rozier | Louisville | Soph. | PG | 6-1 | 190 |
| 52 | Aaron Harrison | Kentucky | Soph. | SG | 6-6 | 212 |
| 53 | Chris Walker | Florida | - | PF | 6-11 | 230 |
| 54 | Nigel Williams-Goss | Washington | Soph. | PG | 6-3 | 190 |
| 55 | Egemen Guven | Turkey | - | PF | 6-9 | 210 |
| 56 | Shawn Long | UL Lafayette | Jr. | PF | 6-9 | 245 |
| 57 | Yogi Ferrell | Indiana | Jr. | PG | 6-0 | 180 |
| 58 | Guillermo Hernangomez | Spain | - | C | 6-11 | 255 |
| 59 | Anthony Brown | Stanford | Sr. | SF | 6-6 | 215 |
| 60 | Tyrone Wallace | California | Jr. | PG | 6-5 | 200 |
| 61 | Shannon Scott | Ohio State | Sr. | PG | 6-1 | 185 |
| 62 | Chris McCullough | Syracuse | Fr. | PF | 6-10 | 220 |
| 63 | Marcus Paige | North Carolina | Jr. | PG | 6-1 | 175 |
| 64 | Treveon Graham | VCU | Sr. | SG | 6-6 | 225 |
| 65 | Michael Frazier II | Florida | Jr. | SG | 6-4 | 194 |
| 66 | Nikola Milutinov | Serbia | - | C | 6-11 | 220 |
| 67 | E.C. Matthews | Rhode Island | Soph. | SG | 6-5 | 190 |
| 68 | Kennedy Meeks | North Carolina | Soph. | C | 6-9 | 270 |
| 69 | Michael Qualls | Arkansas | Jr. | SG | 6-6 | 205 |
| 70 | Jarell Martin | LSU | Soph. | PF | 6-10 | 235 |
| 71 | Branden Dawson | Michigan State | Sr. | SF | 6-6 | 225 |
| 72 | Brandon Ashley | Arizona | Jr. | PF | 6-9 | 230 |
| 73 | Chris Obekpa | St. Johns | Jr. | C | 6-10 | 236 |
| 74 | Isaac Haas | Purdue | Fr. | C | 7-2 | 297 |
| 75 | Rakeem Christmas | Syracuse | Sr. | C | 6-9 | 250 |
| 76 | Jonathan Holmes | Texas | Sr. | SF | 6-8 | 240 |
| 77 | Alex Poythress | Kentucky | Jr. | PF | 6-8 | 235 |
| 78 | A.J. Hammons | Purdue | Jr. | C | 7-0 | 261 |
| 79 | Kenan Sipahi | Kosovo | - | G | 6-6 | 195 |
| 80 | Josh Scott | Colorado | Jr. | PF | 6-10 | 245 |
| 81 | Andzejs Pasecniks | Latvia | - | C | 7-1 | 220 |
| 82 | Marcus Lee | Kentucky | Soph. | PF | 6-9 | 220 |
| 83 | Briante Weber | VCU | Sr. | PG | 6-2 | 165 |
| 84 | Wayne Selden Jr. | Kansas | Soph. | SF | 6-5 | 230 |
| 85 | Malcolm Brogdon | Virginia | Jr. | SG | 6-5 | 215 |
| 86 | Georges Niang | Iowa State | Jr. | SF | 6-8 | 230 |
| 87 | Kenneth Smith | Louisiana Tech | Sr. | PG | 6-3 | 180 |
| 88 | Isaiah Taylor | Texas | Soph. | PG | 6-1 | 170 |
| 89 | Marc Garcia | Spain | - | SG | 6-6 | 180 |
| 90 | Cedi Osman | Macedonia | - | PG | 6-6 | 190 |
| 91 | Keifer Sykes | Green Bay | Sr. | PG | 6-0 | 180 |
| 92 | Monte Morris | Iowa State | Soph. | PG | 6-2 | 170 |
| 93 | Andrew Harrison | Kentucky | Soph. | PG | 6-6 | 210 |
| 94 | Malcolm Hill | Illinois | Soph. | SF | 6-6 | 230 |
| 95 | Alan Williams | Santa Barbara | Sr. | C | 6-8 | 265 |
| 96 | Moussa Diagne | Senegal | - | C | 6-11 | 230 |
| 97 | Perry Ellis | Kansas | Jr. | SF | 6-8 | 225 |
| 98 | Aaron White | Iowa | Sr. | PF | 6-9 | 228 |
| 99 | Isaiah Whitehead | Seton Hall | Fr. | SG | 6-4 | 210 |
| 100 | Terran Petteway | Nebraska | Jr. | SG | 6-6 | 215 |
Overall · Point Guards · Shooting Guards · Small Forwards · Power Forwards · Centers
