The college hoops offseason is painfully long, but we're almost through it! And now it's time to get ready/informed for 2014-15 with our month of ample preseason content here at CBSSports.com. We'll be previewing all of the major conferences in addition to giving you a bevy of other features. Today's lookahead examines the Atlantic 10. Check out more previews here.
The Atlantic 10 is attempting to stake a claim as one of the five best leagues in college basketball. Traditionalists may scoff at that, and others might not think the league is worthy of leapfrogging one or two football-driven conferences, but given how the A-10 has risen in the past three years, it's possible. When you look at what the conference is from top to bottom and what it has done in recruiting, I repeat: It's possible.
That 2013-14 campaign was special. Behind (my) player of the year Chaz Williams, UMass made its grand return, a reappearance about 10 years in the making. Dayton reached the Elite Eight and became the 2014 tournament darlings. VCU continued to be nationally relevant. Saint Louis -- oh yeah, Saint Louis -- ho hum, just happened to win the league's regular season title again. Plus St. Joe's and George Washington made the Big Dance.
Eight A-10 teams won 18 games or more, the same number as the Big Ten, ACC and Pac-12. Getting teams back to the second weekend that matters in March and earning at least another four NCAA bids will give more credence to the conference, which a year ago boasted non-league wins over Virginia, Gonzaga, Nebraska, NC State, Creighton, New Mexico, Stanford and Maryland.
Coach's Take
On the league's best teams outside of near-unanimous pick VCU:
"I would probably pick GW at two. I would pick Dayton at three. I really like G-Dub. They've got a terrific team and good players. They're going to be really, really good. At four? Kind of putting me on the spot there. You know what? I think Rhode Island's going to be really good. At five, probably Richmond."
On the league this year:
"I think it's one of the best five leagues in the country. Last year, to me, it wasn't even close in terms of the A-10 being one of the five best. If you look at some of the road wins our league had, it was pretty evident. I think our league never gets enough credit. Every year people seem to say, 'The league's gonna be down next year!' Is it going to be down? I don't want to say it's going to be down. Will we get six teams in next year? It's tough. It's tough to get six teams in in the SEC."
Most underrated player in the league:
"Kevin Larsen at GW. I think he's maybe the best big in the league. He is a mother to guard. He chews us up. He's vastly underrated. Not all-league, but he's really good. (George Washington's) Patricio Garino, too. Those guys put up really good numbers. Larsen, he can shoot."
Toughest team to scout/coach against:
"I'd say it's probably a tie. G-Dub or Richmond. G-Dub runs so much stuff, they're tough. Just with the mixture of their players, what they run, the 1-3-1, man-to-man, zone, they throw about anything at you."
Projected Order of Finish
1. 
Virginia Commonwealth
The A-10 falls in line with a lot of leagues this year with clear-cut picks to win their respective conferences (Villanova in the Big East; Arizona in the Pac-12; Kentucky in the SEC; Wisconsin in the Big Ten). The Rams are as much of a rightful favorite as any of those teams, given they're that established, talented, deep and unrelenting. This team, at minimum, should win 24 games and be a No. 5 seed. Again, at minimum. The starting five will probably be Treveon Graham, Mo Alie-Cox, Jordan Burgess, Briante Weber and either Melvin Johnson or JeQuan Lewis in the backcourt. Lewis should run point instead of Weber when they're both on the floor, and a freshman, Jonathan Williams, will probably be a big factor as backup PG.
Graham is the stud, though. He's probably going to be the all-time leading scorer at VCU by season's end. Said one coach I talked to about him: "He's like a direct deposit, man. You never know when it's coming, but at the end of the day you know it's there. A coach's dream." There's not a lot of flash to Graham's game but ... hey, you know what, I'll save the rest for below.
2. 
Dayton
Me, last year for the CBSSports.com A-10 preview: "I think Dayton is still a year away from making its first NCAA tournament under third-year head coach Archie Miller." Uh ... whoopsie! But actually, Dayton you'll remember needed a big run down the stretch to qualify for the Big Dance. Then, once you're in, anything could go right. (By the way, that A-10 forecast by me was notoriously bad, and I heard about it plenty on Twitter. Can't wait for this year!) The Flyers now enter the season with something of a target on their back, as they'll be led by Jordan Sibert and Dyshawn Pierre over the next five months. UD gets Texas A&M, UConn, Ole Miss, Arkansas and Georgia Tech out of conference. Not a tremendous slate, but winning three of those games should happen, and that'll set up nicely for the league slate. Yes, Flyers fans should expect a return trip to the NCAAs.
3. 
George Washington
I'm copping to bending to groupthink here. Kind of wonder if GW might wind up fifth or six in the league (still in the bubble mix), yet the coaches think a top-three finish is a near-guarantee. So I'll go with that. I could certainly see it. After all, Mike Lonergan is a really good coach who brings back Larsen, Kethan Savage, Garino and sturdy point guard Joe McDonald, just to mention a few names. There is a lot there, certainly, but no star power. The Colonials play somewhat in obscurity, as the team has not had a lot of success in the past half-decade outside of last season. The offense was substantially better last season compared to 2012-13, and that's why the team reached the tournament. It'll need threats from beyond the 3-point arc to keep pace with Dayton and VCU.
I'm actually picking UMass to finish better this season than it did last, when the Minutemen tied for fifth. (Again, the league was that good.) Though Chaz Williams is gone, Cady Lalanne is set up to be the team's best player, with a lot of help from Derrick Gordon, Trey Davis, Jabarie Hinds and Maxie Esho. Derek Kellogg has Amherst hopping again. This will be a fun team. Defensively, I don't think there will be much of a drop-off. There will be a lot of challenges, and certainly some losses, to start the season. But we'll get a good idea of what UMass is after it plays Florida State, Notre Dame, Harvard (road), LSU (road), Florida Gulf Coast, Providence (road), BYU (road) and Iona. WHAT? Kellogg, have you lost your mind? I love you for this. UMass' power numbers are going to be incredibly strong if the Minutemen break even in the eight games listed above.
5. 
Richmond
Chris Mooney has been the head coach of Richmond since 2005-06. He's made two trips to the NCAAs in that time, but this should be the season where the Spiders get back -- or at least come damn close. Mooney's team was about as good with the ball (read: not turning it over) last year as it's been in the past nine season. And with Kendall Anthony (who averaged 15.9 ppg and made the A-10 Second Team last season), they should be consistent in the backcourt. Talent-wise, I'm not sure Richmond's top-five in the league. But it has the coaching and vets to keep it interesting. Richmond is a tough team to scheme against. With a team that won 19 last season and didn't lose too much, why shouldn't Richmond crack 20 wins and make a run?
6. 
Saint Louis
For the second successive season I'm taking Saint Louis to finish sixth. Yeah, I was Lloyd Christmas-like in my way-offness last October, but the Billikens undoubtedly lost significant players from a season ago. And whereas last year I was underestimating, now plenty will think I'm overshooting SLU. The team's five most productive players graduated; now it's up to guys named Roby, Jolly, McBroom and Glaze. Sounds like an Elmore Leonard novel. I'm counting on Jim Crews to just grip teams the way he has. By sheer force of will, Saint Louis will not finish in the bottom half of this league. It's going to be offensively challenged, but winning 61-57 has been a specialty under Crews. There are six freshmen on this team. Chances are SLU will be near the top of the league again in two years. But for now, settling for sixth and scratching at a bid will have to do in a transitional season.
7. 
Rhode Island
I always prefer to go against the grain in some cases, and I'm doing that with the Rams. A lot of love for Danny Hurley's team and ability. I think he'll win an A-10 regular season or league tournament title by 2017. But this year, I'm pushing back just a smidge. After all, the team went 14-18 last year. And while that's not a prelude to another sub-.500 year, count me in for a few more growing pains. Love E.C. Matthews' game. This sophomore is a future NBA pick and still growing. Can he make up for Xavier Munford's nearly 17 points per game? Munford was a senior. And the team wasn't even top 150 in offensive efficiency. They'll need production jumps from Gilvydas Biruda, Jordan Hare and Biggie Minnis. The non-conference schedule isn't tremendously challenging, which is a good thing. URI has a great chance of being entertaining but also just a few steps away from distinguishing itself.
8. 
St. Joseph's
Phil Martelli, the longest tenured coach in the league, has a group that will be led by a terrific young player in DeAndre Bembry. Love this guy; he's got enough talent and gumption to be one of the five best players in the league. He's also pretty great on D, specializing in on-ball coverage that should probably improve this season. But who's really around him to help lift SJU into the top six in the league? I'm not sure, because the Hawks lost four seniors last season, including Langston Galloway and Halil Kanacevic, who is an all-time Want Him In Case of Bar Fight team member. Remember, the Hawks had that great run to the NCAAs last season, and in fact they gave UConn a tougher challenge -- just one rebound away! -- than any other team amid the Huskies' improbable six-game march to a title. Road games against Gonzaga and Villanova are huge challenges in the non-conference. A lot of responsibility is likely to fall to a senior point guard named Chris Wilson, who's going to have to score just as much as he dishes.
9. 
Davidson
No idea where to slot the Wildcats in their first year as an A-10 member. The conference is unquestionably better in hoops and academics with Davidson's entrance. And if you told me you can see the future and guaranteed Davidson will finish top five in the league come March, well, I'd be impressed. Bob McKillop is considered a top-20 X's and O's guy in all of college hoops, far as I can tell, and so he'll have a shot. No, this isn't the SoCon, where Davidson won a regular season or postseason league title in eight of the past 10 seasons. The A-10 is a big step up, but one this program is ready for. This season McKillop will hope to get a boost from a sprite sophomore in Jack Gibbs. Tyler Kalinoski will be vital. The senior guard should average about 14 points. Also keep an eye on a newbie named Oskar Michelsen. I think he could be on the A-10 All-Freshmen team. The team's toughest non-con games come on the road against Virginia and North Carolina.
10. 
Duquesne
Just give the Dukes a little more time. The team is building toward becoming an offensive dynamo. Jim Ferry loves to run and shoot and not waste time on that shot clock. The flash and long-distance reliability comes from Micah Mason, who's one of the five best shooters in college basketball. Mason shot 56 percent from 3 last year and had an offensive rating of 152.7. That is a ridiculous number -- and was tops in the nation, per KenPom.com. Mason and Derrick Colter will make for a fun backcourt. Unfortunately, Ferry's teams aren't known for defense. They'll need to outrun and outscore you to win. That'll happen, but not often enough to warrant a 20-win forecast for the Dukes this season.
11. 
La Salle
It's tough for a program like La Salle to sustain success in the long-term. It's just how it is; the program's resources aren't great, so any season that ends above .500 is a really good one. A year after that charmed 2013 Sweet 16 run, the Explorers followed it up with a 15-16 campaign and a 7-9 league record despite having a lot of pieces back (who were strangely not nearly as good on offense). Now Tyreek Duren, Tyrone Garland and Sam Mills have all moved on. La Salle will lean on forward Steve Zack, but also keep an eye on a kid named Jordan Price. He originally signed to Auburn. Might be the surprise player in the league this season. All in all, though, I don't think John Giannini's team is going to have the depth to keep up with the chase.
12.
St. Bonaventure
The Bonnies made a fun run -- this was one of my favorite things to write about last season -- during the league tournament, but in all this was a team that got by on some big shots after giving up a few too many easy baskets. Guard Jordan Gathers and center Youssou Ndoye will probably lead the team in points and minutes. Ndoye averaged 10 and 6 last season, which isn't bad, but standing 7 feet, he'll need to up those averages by a couple of digits in order to keep the Bonnies competitive. Gathers can hit some big shots, but he probably needs to find more of an aggressive streak. The nephew of the late Hank Gathers carries a torch for his family and his uncle's honor. He doesn't hide from it, and because of that he's become a really positive model for the school and his team.
13.
Fordham
Can the Rams finally climb out of the league basement? I'm going to say yes, because the team returns four of its starters and has an absolute guarantee of a production player in Jon Severe. If the Rams even had a sniff of finishing .500 in this league, I'd pick Severe, a sophomore, for the preseason first team. But that will have to wait one more year. Tom Pecora's club will also have good supporters in Ryan Rhoomes and Mandell Thomas. The problem with this team, absolutely, is the defense. It lacks the size and stamina to keep up and wear teams down. I expect more of the same this season, though I do think Fordham's more likely to lose its games by closer margins -- and looking better -- than last season. Question is, can Pecora survive one more season like this?
14.
George Mason
I bid high on Mason last year, only to see Paul Hewitt's team go 11-20 and be riddled with problems all year. So I'm going to pump the breaks and allow the Patriots to prove me wrong yet again. The team was a slog, as it didn't move the ball well, create turnovers or score well within 15 feet of the hoop. And it was regrettably bad when it came to giving the ball away. Eradicating that is the kind of thing that can take an off-season of persistence. If Hewitt's team can curb its turnovers even down to 11 per game from the 13.4 it had last season, then gains absolutely will be made. Erik Copes is going to have to have a big year, and Jalen Jenkins will probably be the team's star. Jenkins is a power forward who could end up with 15 double-doubles this season.
Our Preseason All-Atlantic 10 Team
G: Kethan Savage, George Washington
G: Jordan Sibert, Dayton
G: E.C. Matthews, Rhode Island
F: Treveon Graham, Virginia Commonwealth
F: Cady Lalanne, UMass
Our Preseason Atlantic 10 Player of the Year
Treveon Graham, VCU
Treveon Graham has quietly been extremely good over the past two seasons. Now comes his chance to be the alpha for VCU. He's an extremely hard worker -- with the talent to boost. He can use his left hand, can spot up and jump, and is overall is extremely versatile. Few guys are as well-rounded in this league, in college hoops, as Graham. He can play, if asked, all five positions for VCU. I'm not sure any player in college hoops was invited over the summer to Chris Paul's camp, LeBron James' camp and Kevin Durant's camp. He's won the 1-on-1 tournament the past two years at CP3, too.
He could be the Kawhi Leonard of college basketball: Not a big media guy at all, but absolutely reliable and tough as can be.
Our Preseason Atlantic 10 Newcomer of the Year
Jabari Hinds, UMass
The transfer from West Virginia is probably going to start the season by coming off the pine, but I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if he wound up as one of the two most important players for the Minutemen by February. This team loses its dynamo playmaker in Chaz Williams, and at 5-foot-10, Hinds might be something of a proxy.
Our Preseason Atlantic 10 Coach of the Year
Shaka Smart, VCU
It's almost become a familiar bit of sports trivia for college basketball fans. And if it doesn't happen this year, I guarantee it will be something Smart carries with him until he eradicates this fact: He's never won a regular-season title. Now, I'm compelled to remind readers that Smart's been a head coach for just five seasons (yep, he's only entering his sixth here) and has reached four NCAA tournaments. So this isn't exactly a pox on his reputation. But it is surprising. I think he finally gets it done and takes a regular-season crown this season, thus earning him coach of the year.
Three Numbers to Know
6: Did you forget? That's the number of teams the conference sent to the NCAAs last season. It's a league record. It will be hard to duplicate, but I think it's possible. The strength of the A-10 lies in the fact the conference is always heavy on vets. With that, and with the 68-team format, and with a momentum surge and great coaching, it's a near-guarantee the league sends at least four teams. Six is not out of the question, tough as it will be.
6.7: In our AAC preview, I highlighted how the primary problem with the conference last season was its propensity for blowouts. The American had more games decided by 20 points or more in conference play than any league. The A-10 is the inverse. Its 6.7-percent rate of blowouts last season was the lowest in college hoops. The league has grown into something very competitive, but its best year was unquestionably last season.
385: The NCAA record for career steals, held by Providence's John Linehan. VCU senior guard Briante Weber sits at 296 swipes through three seasons. That's an amazing number, and Weber's probably going to break the record, though it's not going to be easy. Unfortunately for Weber, if you Google "Briante Weber steals" you get this result: an iPhone theft in the offseason forced Shaka Smart's hand, and so Weber will sit out the season-opener against Tennessee.
