What is expected to be a frenzied free-agent period in the NBA is about to become even more chaotic, with league sources telling CBSSports.com Tuesday night that the 2015-16 salary cap is expected to come in as much as $2 million higher than initial projections.
The revenue numbers upon which the cap is based came in healthier than anticipated, which could lead to significantly more spending room per team in the free agency period that kicks off at 12:01 a.m. ET.
Teams have been operating on an estimated cap of $67.1 million for the 2015-16 season, but the National Basketball Players Association revealed at the annual agents' summit in Los Angeles this week that the actual cap is expected to come in at least $1 million higher, and perhaps as much as $2 million higher, two people familiar with the matter said. The official number won't be set until July 8, when league audits will be completed at the end of the league's moratorium period on free-agent signings. Players and teams can begin negotiating deals after midnight ET Wednesday.
The luxury-tax threshold, projected to be $81.6 million for the coming season, also is expected to be pegged at a significantly higher number, sources said.
The projected spike in the salary cap to $89 million in 2016-17, based on the influx of national broadcast income from the league's $24 billion, nine-year TV deal, will not necessarily be affected by the higher than anticipated numbers for this coming season. The cap and tax calculations are based on the previous season's revenue numbers, which obviously aren't known yet for the 2015-16 season.
The expected upward shift in the '15-'16 cap could help teams like the Lakers, Spurs, Mavericks, Pistons, Suns, Rockets, Raptors, Bucks and others who are trying to create cap room to chase free agents like LaMarcus Aldridge, Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan, Kevin Love, Greg Monroe and Tyson Chandler. It could also help big-spending teams like the Nets, and teams dipping for the first time into the luxury tax like the Thunder and Bulls, by easing their projected tax burden. TTeams like Atlanta that are trying to keep their own free agents (DeMarre Carroll and Paul Millsap, in the Hawks' case), also will get some relief.
In short, there was between $30 million and $60 million more free-agent money to spend when the negotiating period opened at 12:01 a.m. ET Wednesday than players, teams and agents thought there would be. Let the frenzy begin.
