NEW YORK – With the NBA Draft lottery happening Tuesday night, there is only one given: As has been the case since they were awarded the No. 1 pick in 1997 and chose Tim Duncan, the Spurs will be nowhere near the ping-pong balls.

It’s been an incredible run of playoff success, 18 consecutive years out of the lottery and counting. Whether it’s the Timberwolves, Knicks, Sixers, Lakers or somebody else, the team that lands the No. 1 pick Tuesday night will be touted as the lottery winner.

As the Spurs have proved time and again, the best way to win the lottery is to avoid it.

But the five-time champions have decisions to make this summer as they try to reload for one more title run. It will start with decisions from Duncan and Manu Ginobili about whether they will return next season – on contracts that allow San Antonio to max out Kawhi Leonard and pursue a marquee free agent.

As of Tuesday, the Spurs have not received any indication one way or the other about whether Duncan or Ginobili will be back. The prevailing wisdom among those in close contact with the organization is the same as it was the night the Spurs lost in Game 7 to the Clippers: Duncan, 39, likely will be back for one more hurrah, and Ginobili, 37, is leaning toward retirement.

After San Antonio’s first-round loss to LA, Ginobili said retirement “could happen, easily.”

“Some days you feel proud and you think you did great,” he said. “And other games I say, ‘What the hell am I doing here? Why don’t I stay home and enjoy my kids?’ It’s a tough moment.”

The free-agent plan for the Spurs is to quickly agree on a five-year max deal with Leonard – “It will be a short conversation,” one person with knowledge of the dynamics said – and empower Leonard to join Duncan in an all-out recruitment of All-Star free agent LaMarcus Aldridge, league sources told CBSSports.com.

The Spurs will feel out Memphis center Marc Gasol, too, but the prevailing belief now is that Aldridge is more likely to change teams. The Trail Blazers’ hope is that the Texas native will be enticed by the five-year, $107 million deal they can offer as opposed to the four-year, $82 million that other suitors will have on the table. But that home-team advantage has been greatly diminished by the looming spike in the salary cap in 2016. Aldridge, 29, will strongly consider doing a two-year deal with a player option for ’16-’17 that would get him back to the market in a position to make tens of millions more at the new max.

Even in the Spurs’ dream scenario – Duncan and Leonard come back and successfully recruit Aldridge – they will have a hard time retaining free agent Danny Green, who is expected to command $10-$12 million on the open market – which, in 2016, will look like a bargain.

Toronto turmoil. Among the factors in the shakeup of Dwane Casey’s staff in Toronto was the slow growth curve for 2011 first-round pick Jonas Valanciunas, league sources told CBSSports.com.

The Raptors tweaked Casey’s offensive system numerous times in an effort to spark more production from the Lithuanian center. In the second shakeup on his staff since Casey was hired in 2011, the Raptors have fired assistants Bill Bayno and Tom Sterner, sources said. Bayno, who joined Casey’s staff in 2013, had worked closely with Valanciunas, though some in the organization believe it was unfair to make Bayno the fall guy for Valanciunas’ slow growth. The old adage that big men take more time to develop is playing out in Toronto, though let’s have a little perspective. Valanciunas turned 23 this month.

Sterner, a coaching veteran who has worked for Dallas, Orlando and Golden State, is best known for his “TV Tom” persona due to his entertaining and intense halftime interviews.

KG almost a Laker. The late Dr. Jerry Buss having a “handshake deal” with Glen Taylor to acquire Kevin Garnett from Minnesota – before the Timberwolves shipped KG to the Celtics – is one of many interesting details revealed in this splendid oral history of Garnett from Bleacher Report’s Howard Beck. The tipping point, according to Taylor, was the Celtics’ draft-night acquisition of Ray Allen from Seattle in 2007:

Taylor: “We went to Boston, and I got a deal with Boston and took it to Kevin, and he says, ‘No, I don’t want to be traded.’ … Then they went out and got Allen. I went back to Kevin and said to him, later on, ‘Well, they’re still here. They want you.’ I thought he said, ‘OK’ to me. I really did. … I don’t know if he remembers it that way quite or not. Because he has said at different times, ‘I wished I could have stayed there.’ But I thought I asked him. I thought he agreed.”

As for the Lakers’ role, Phil Jackson said the fact that Taylor ultimately wanted Garnett out of the Western Conference scuttled LA’s plan to land the Big Ticket:

Jackson: “Dr. Buss came to me and said, ‘I have a handshake agreement with Taylor, that he’s going to come to LA. But [Kevin] McHale hasn’t concurred yet.’ So I said, “Well, that’s a good excuse.’ You always, as an owner, say, ‘I’ll do this, but …’ So I kept that hope out there that he was going to be part of the Laker organization.”

Will LaMarcus Aldridge take a discount to return to Texas? (USATSI)
Will LaMarcus Aldridge take a discount to return to Texas? (USATSI)