Every year in college basketball, players break out and become potential NBA prospects. It's just the nature of the draft cycle.
There are plenty of reasons why these players go unnoticed to start a season. Sometimes, it has to do with injury. For instance, Kris Dunn basically hadn't played in a starring role at Providence in his first two seasons due to shoulder injuries knocking him out of commission. Other times, players just simply make an improvement that totally changes their fortunes. Justin Anderson is a good example of this last season, as he went from a below-average college shooter to one that now has a chance to be elite in the pros. And honestly, sometimes you just look back and wonder what you missed. Larry Nance, Jr. at Wyoming is a good example of this, given his tremendous athleticism, shooting potential, and length.
You could look at my preseason top-150 board (and you should!) to get a pretty good feel for where players are currently regarded. But that board ends up being a balancing act between actual production and unrealized potential, and it's hard to get a feel for who some of the potential risers could be throughout the process just by looking at it. That's what this list is for. It discusses the sleepers of this season's college basketball campaign in regard to their NBA potential. Guys who have high upsides, so to speak. So how did I come about making this?
Well, first I stripped away anyone currently ranked in the top-100. Let's get into players that aren't necessarily household names. Then, I also did not consider players in the high school class of 2015, as they're still somewhat more volatile quantities. Finally, I went ahead and eliminated European prospects and strictly limited it to college hoops returnees.
Not all of the players listed are currently within my top-150, and I don't expect all of these to make me look particularly smart by the end of the year. After all, they'll all flawed players in some way, which is what you get down to once you take out the top-100 players plus the entire freshman class. But like with the stock market, sometimes it's just worth taking a flier on something with a high upside and just seeing where it leads. And these guys all deserve at least a second or third glance from NBA prospects, even if some are currently way off the radar right now.
Without further ado, here are the 10 names (in alphabetical order) that could burst onto scouts radars this season.
Vanderbilt | Guard
Baldwin is an interesting guy for a lot of reasons. Statistically, he's the ONLY returning player on a high-major team to put up at least a 31 percent assist rate, 58 true-shooting percentage, and three percent steal rate (Jalan West at Northwestern State also did this last year). He's also the only returning freshman point guard to throw up a 14 percent defensive rebounding rate. These stats show that not is he efficient, but he's extremely well-rounded in how he can affect a game.
Purely from a scouting perspective, he also looks like a prime breakout candidate. He's a drive-and-kick guy that has a solid first step and will be surrounded by shooters and a terrific, mobile big man in Damian Jones. Passing the ball is where he shines, as he's a smart player that really understands passing angles. His jumper has a pretty quick release already as well, which helps him compensate for a lower release point. Defense might actually be his calling card at this point though, where he has prototypical size for the point guard position in the NBA at 6-3 with a 6-10 wingspan. The key for him this year will be diversifying what he does when teams take away his number one option. Last year, we didn't see a ton of creativity in what he can do when handling the ball, and he largely deferred to teammates when that happened. Given that he's not an elite athlete, he'll need to develop counter moves to give him better ways to attack defenses.
Ohio State | Small Forward
This is probably the guy I'm least confident in performing well this season, just simply due to the fact that no one has any idea what the Ohio State rotation could look like. He could become the Buckeyes' primary scorer, or he could become a weapon off the bench that plays 18 minutes a game. I do lean more toward the former being likely though, because the skillset is there for a breakout year and he began to play well late in the 2014-15 season.
At 6-7 with a 7-2 wingspan, he has great size for a 3 in the NBA. He's also a terrific shooter that's always been known as such, which makes the 46 percent he shot from 3 last season on limited attempts a bit less of an outlier. He's also a really good athlete who can get past defenders, score at all three levels, and get out into transition. His key will be like many on this list: diversifying his game off the dribble and adding strength. The motor, frame and shooting is there. Strength and ball-handling will be the key, as that would allow him to defend better and finish at the rim.
Notre Dame | Forward
Beachem was more of a role player last season on the wing with Pat Connaughton in the mix. He only averaged about six points, and didn't really do much beyond simply shooting the basketball. That should change this year though, and Beachem has a lot of things that NBA scouts look for in a small forward.
First, let's start with the frame, as at 6-8 with long arms and a wiry frame, Beachem has basically a prototypical body for an NBA 3. His athleticism is also pretty strong, as he looks fluid enough to play the 3 regularly despite playing a fair amount of minutes guarding 4s. He's the kind of guy that you could imagine switching screens and being extremely versatile defensively within a couple of years once his body fills out -- although he hasn't shown the ability to do any of that yet on an above-average level due to his strength. The most NBA-ready skill he has is obviously his jump shot, as he knocked down 41.6 percent of his 3s and 43 percent of his catch-and-shoot jumpers overall. It's also worth noting though that he was absolutely terrific in a small sample shooting off the dribble as well, knocking down jumpers at a 1.375 points-per-possession clip, which was within the 99th percentile nationally. Anyone with that frame, athleticism, and shooting ability is going to get major looks as the NBA continues to look for 3-and-D type guys. It's now up to Beachem to add the strength and round out his game, as he needs to be more effective everywhere else.
UCLA | Forward
Certainly, this would be more of a speculative add given that Bolden still hasn't played a minute of college hoops yet. But there's a lot to like about Bolden, and he could replicate a lot of what the Bruins lose in 2015 first-round pick Kevon Looney. At 6-10 with a wingspan that appears to be well over 7-feet, it's hard not be excited about Bolden's frame. The year off seems to have helped him in the strength department too, as he's now listed at 215 pounds after getting to UCLA at around 200 last offseason.
But it's more the skillset he has that is so intriguing. Bolden has the skills of a guard on the floor, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him play a lot of 3 this season for the Bruins. That's going to make him a matchup nightmare for a lot of teams. Most college teams don't have a 4 fluid enough athletically to stay with a guy like Bolden, and don't have guards big enough to do it. That's going to allow him to act as something of a point forward, because he's also a pretty good passer for a player his size. He's going to need to shoot enough to keep defenses honest against him. But the frame and skills are there for NBA teams to think they can make something out of him if he can perform well with the Bruins.
Weber State | Forward/Center
Bolomboy is one of those mid-major athletes who seem to just overwhelm the competition when he's on the floor. At 6-9 with long arms, he's a good shot-blocker who has good timing and pretty solid explosiveness. Above all, his motor is absolutely top-notch and you can trust him to never quit on a play or on a ball. But in Bolomboy's case, it's looking beyond the athleticism and that reveals a potential high-end prospect if he can put in some further work.
First and foremost, he is an elite rebounder that has good fundamentals in boxing out opponents and has good hands that he can trust to come down with the ball. He's averaged 10.6 rebounds per game over the last two seasons, with terrific rate-based numbers. Typically, it takes one elite skill to get noticed on the mid-major level, but some secondary ones to get tracked. Bolomboy's most intriguing secondary skill is his jump shot, as he knocked down 3-pointers at a solid 36 percent last season on limited attempts. He needs to become a more consistent shot-maker from mid-range and out to 20-feet, but the mechanics are there for that to happen potentially. He's also quite mobile, but needs to improve his fundamentals when defending on the perimeter or in switches. It's fair to say he has a bit of a way to go still, but this is a player that has improved every season, and could very well end up in the NBA with some work in the same way that Maurice Ndour accomplished that goal this offseason.
Maryland | Forward
Another somewhat speculative add, although in this circumstance it also has to do with what he's shown he can do already. He's a tremendously talented offensive player who has always been able to score at all three levels due to his soft touch. Also, he was a good rebounder at Georgia Tech before transferring to Maryland, and that tends to be something that's translatable.
However, the biggest improvement here has to be in his body. At 6-8 with a 7-2ish wingspan, Carter's always had the frame to be in the NBA with his skillset. However, his body has always been a problem, as he's weighed in at upward of 260 pounds in the past. Over the past year though, he's dropped a fair portion of that weight and is now down to a svelte 235 pounds, which could really allow him to defend 4s and become a matchup problem due to his ability to step away from the hoop. He was also known in the past a guy that wouldn't always bring high effort, but he's now transformed into more of a leader and maximum effort guy since his transfer. If all of these skills come through, Carter could end up being the No. 2 option on a Maryland team that has title aspirations. Those kind of guys often have a pretty real chance at getting drafted.
Louisville | Guard
Lee is the second-highest returning scorer in college basketball this season after averaging 21.4 points-per-game at Drexel last year. He's obviously going to be at a different, higher-level school this year, but his role likely won't change nearly as much as you'd expect. He's still going to be the number one option offensively, and the biggest place he excels is in creating that offense.
He's a great shooter, with the ability to knock down shots off the catch or off the dribble. He has range out to the NBA 3-point line already, and his footwork is absolutely pristine to the point that he can get that shot off from every angle. It's also worth noting he's a strong passer, and can handle the ball in side pick-and-rolls to initiate offense. Plus, he's a good defender that was named to his league's all-defense team. At 6-6 he has pretty solid size for the position, even if his wingspan isn't great. It's going to be fun to see how this package of skills translates to the ACC this season. It's possible that it just doesn't work out at Louisville and he ends up as more of a really good European player. But it's also not out of the question that he becomes the leading scorer in the ACC, and those guys also tend to be worth draft picks even if they're a bit old for college at 23.
Miami (FL) | Guard/Forward
Reed really came on late last season, averaging 10.4 points per game over his last 21 games, which is when he moved into the starting lineup for the Hurricanes. He was also named to the All-NIT team last year after the Canes fell in OT to Stanford in the title. From a frame standpoint, Reed's 6-6 with at least 6-10.5 wingspan (it was measured three years ago), which profiles well for both wing spots in the NBA.
His biggest strength right now is his ability to shoot. He made nearly 46 percent of his 3-point attempts last season, and his 62 percent true-shooting mark reflects an efficient player that doesn't try to do too much. His athleticism and first step are also pretty strong, and it allows him to attack closeouts well on offense and slow down opposing slashers on defense. I'd also say that his basketball IQ is a plus, as he's able to make the right pass, find the right places to cut toward the rim, and typically be in the right position defensively. You also don't have to worry about effort with him, as he's always going to play hard, and he's a smart kid that was on the ACC's All-Academic team last year. The key for him will be to step into a larger role this year for the Hurricanes. He needs to show off a bit more when handling the ball, and needs to just become a better defensive player fundamentally. The package is there though for Reed to become an NBA-type 3-and-D player.
Xavier | Forward/Center
Reynolds just looks like an NBA big man right now. At 6-10, 235 pounds with long arms, he should be able to play both big positions in the NBA. He's explosive, mobile and strong, and he used that athleticism to excel on a per-minute basis last year. He averaged 19.5 points and 11.9 rebounds per-40 minutes on 62 percent shooting with a 25.3 PER. Most of that production revolves around his explosiveness and aggressiveness, as he's just a physical force at the collegiate level that also has the requisite touch and potential from the perimeter to provide excitement for development among NBA scouts. He also is a good defender, as he's able to close out on shooters in the midrange with his mobility and protect the rim due to his power.
There are some red flags that need to be addressed though. First, he's about to turn 23, and given how long he hstill has to go that could be a tough sell for teams. . And there really isn't a ton of polish to his game right now, which means he's basically relying totally on his athleticism as opposed to his feel for the game. Some guys can get along like that, but it can be tougher as you rise up levels. Also, there's the reason he's a 23-year-old junior, and it has to do with grades as he sat out his first year at Xavier because of them. Then, he was suspended in his freshman year for unknown reasons, and was investigated last March for an assault before being cleared. He's a high-upside player this year at Xavier without Matt Stainbrook around, but he'll need to answer the bell in a big way and stay out of trouble.
Iona | Guard/Forward
A.J. English gets all of the publicity at Iona, and he certainly could be on this list as well (although we kind of know what he is at this point). However, Williams has just as much upside for the NBA right now. At 6-7 with long arms, he the kind of frame NBA teams want, although he still certainly needs to put on some weight. It's his performance in two particular categories that will get him looks from NBA scouts. First, he's one of the best catch-and-shoot players in the entire NCAA. He's knocked down over 43 percent of his 300 career 3-pointers without much deviation over the course of his two years. That bodes well for a league where spacing is essential. He also differentiates himself from your typical shooter with his defensive ability, as he's capable of guarding all five positions on the mid-major level. Plus, he's a guy that creates turnovers and generally gives a ton of effort. In the NBA, you'd be looking at a guy who could potentially guard both wing spots and some 4s if he can continue to add strength.
The questions about Williams will largely revolve around his feel for the game. Mostly, Williams is still just an athlete running around the floor and wreaking havoc. That's not too dissimilar to what Sir'Dominic Pointer did last year at St. John's (plus Williams can shoot), but typically it's hard to make it that way. Plus, his background could give some teams pause. He was born in the "Jungle" in Newark, and says that at least 24 of his friends have been killed by gun violence. On a human level, I certainly root for Williams to achieve what he can playing professional basketball. But NBA teams might not feel the same way, given that he left his team to go back to Newark in 2014 (even if his plan to save his brother, as enumerated in the linked article above, was virtuous). Certainly a guy worth tracking to see if he can break out this year though.
(Measurements information taken from Draft Express, advanced statistical information taken from sports-reference.com and Synergy Sports Technology)
