Each day this week, NBA Draft expert Sam Vecenie will unveil his preseason positional rankings for the 2016 NBA Draft. Today, he will take a look at the top shooting guards that could end up declaring for the draft. For these lists, collegiate freshmen are eligible if they are included in the top-50 overall prospect list, and all potentially eligible international players can be included, even if there is a small chance they declare.
The shooting guard class could end up being surprisingly deep in 2016 if there are some well-timed breakouts.
One of those breakouts has already occurred over the course of the past six months. Canadian Jamal Murray had long been considered a likely college basketball player. A potential four-year guy who could even end up making a couple of all-conference teams if he ended up at a place like Oregon or Syracuse or another mid-sized high-major program. However, Murray broke out in a big way, beginning back in February at Basketball Without Borders and continuing through Hoop Summit in April. He, along with Malik Newman and a few others could become lottery picks with Murray rising as high as a top-five selection.
The depth of this class though will depend on the other young players at the position. Can Dwayne Bacon make a leap in what could be his only collegiate season? Can Allonzo Trier show out as a scorer at Arizona? Can Daniel Hamilton continue his strong play from 2014-15? Will Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk bounce back from a rough end to last season that saw him get limited minutes? It's very up for debate, but there are a lot of options that could turn this into a deep class of shooting guards and role players.
Here are the preseason top-10 shooting guards in the 2016 NBA Draft.
1. Jamal Murray
Freshman, Kentucky
Measurables: 6-5, 204 pounds, 6-7.5 wingspan
As noted above, Murray has had a whirlwind six months that has seen his stock soar from collegiate afterthought in the 2016 recruiting class to a potential top-five pick. His skill level has matured by leaps and bounds since his underage appearance at the Nike Hoop Summit in 2014. He's one of those guys now that you could define as a "killer" on the court. He attacks with reckless abandon, and can get by most people with great change-of-pace dribbles and terrific shiftiness on his handle. Part of the reason for that is you have to respect his jump shot, as he's a pretty great shooter from deep. Once he gets into the lane, he's equally adept at finding kickouts for shooters as well as finishing floaters in the lane and getting to the rim. Basically, Murray's a complete offensive weapon for an 18-year-old, and it should play well at Kentucky this season. I think he's more of a playmaking 2 than a point guard, and he'll likely be used that way at Kentucky this season with Tyler Ulis in the fold. But again, this is a potential top-five pick, and it'll be interesting to see him develop under John Calipari this season.
2. Malik Newman
Freshman, Mississippi State
Measurables: 6-4, 196 pounds, 6-5 wingspan
Newman will be playing his season under Ben Howland this year, and Howland has had quite a bit of success with highly touted lead guards. Newman's another playmaker who might see time as a combo guard, but will probably fit best as a 2. He has a good first step and a terrific handle, which makes him a rather large scoring weapon. His best skill is the ability to shoot off the dribble, which he can do from 3 or in the midrange. The question about Newman will be how he adjusts to finishing at the rim against length, as he only has average explosion vertically and a short wingspan. If he can finish at the rim, he'll be a top-15 player in college basketball this season. But if he can't he could really struggle with his efficiency as he'll be overly reliant on the midrange game. Having said that, the quickness makes him a true playmaker that will create plenty of opportunities for the Bulldogs this season. That makes him a potential lottery pick.
3. Furkan Korkmaz
Int'l 1997, Turkey (Anadolu Efes)
Measurables: 6-7, 175 pounds
Korkmaz had a pretty strong offseason this year for Turkey. He was already considered one of the crown jewels of a strong period of Turkish development, and his summer certainly consolidated that. He was named to the All-Tournament team at both the U19 World Championships and the U18 European Championships, averaging 15 points, 4.5 rebounds and 2.5 steals and 2.5 assists in the 16 games he played. He has terrific running and leaping ability, can really fill it up from distance and can attack in a straight line. He's also a pretty solid passer, and has a strong feel for the game. The questions with him are body and defensive ones. He's an extremely skinny kid right now with very little in the way of bulk, and it affects him in the way he plays in the half court. It also affects him defensively, where beyond getting his hands into passing lanes he really struggles overall. This is the first year he'll be eligible for the draft, so he'll have quite a few more years to decide on his fate. But if he declared this year, he could end up being a lottery pick.
4. Caris LeVert
Senior, Michigan
Measurables: 6-7, 200 pounds, 7-1 wingspan
LeVert has been pretty productive in his time at Michigan, but he's also still largely an unfinished product. First, the good though. At 6-7 with a long wingspan, he has size to play both wing spots. He's knocked down about 40 percent of his 3s over the course of the last two years, and has shown skill as a lead ball-handler at times. However, where a lot of his potential lies is on defense, where his athleticism and wingspan could wreak havoc but struggles to even make an impact. He's poor positionally and doesn't get into passing lanes to deny the ball or create turnovers. That will be the key for him this season: to show that he can eventually improve as a defender in the NBA, and make a mark as a 3-and-D type. He's outside of the lottery, right now, but as a young senior who can shoot and make plays for others, he could end up reaching that height with a great year.
5. Buddy Hield
Senior, Oklahoma
Measurables: 6-5, 6-8.5 wingspan 215 pounds
The Oklahoma senior was the Big 12's player of the year last season, averaging 17.4 points while knocking down 3s and getting out into transition. Also, defensively he's been pretty strong over the last couple of years, cutting off penetration and deflecting passes. The question for him has always been as a shot creator, and it's something he's worked to improve this offseason as he looked much better handling the ball at Adidas Nations. Hield is this high because those skills mentioned above are extremely valuable ones in the NBA, and because he's one of the hardest workers you'll find in college basketball. That makes him about as perfect a role player as you'll find, and that makes him a potential first-round pick.
6. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk
Sophomore, Kansas
Measurables: 6-6, 191 pounds, 6-6 wingspan
Mykhailiuk is a guy that will have a lot of differing opinions this year. On one hand, he was the youngest player in college basketball last season, and got some decent minutes playing for Kansas early in the year due to his extremely high basketball intelligence and ability to always make the right play. However, his minutes dried up as he lost his confidence as a shooter. The Ukrainian wing is a really smart player who profiles well as a role player from a height, shooting and intelligence perspective. The questions about him are mostly frame-based, as he's not a long athlete and he's still pretty skinny. Can he defend his position respectably in the NBA with his only average athleticism? Maybe he can be one of those smart team defenders who always makes the right read and knows exactly where to be? Regardless, the shine on his prospects aren't quite gone yet, and if he can show shooting skill along with his passing acumen this year, he'll have a good chance to be a first-rounder if he so chooses in 2016.
7. Allonzo Trier
Freshman, Arizona
Measurables: 6-5, 200 pounds, 6-6 wingspan
Trier is a scorer's scorer. He can get a step on most players due to sharp ball-handling acumen, a solid first step and a good feel for exactly what the defender is going to do. That allows him to get his jump shot largely whenever he wants it, and he's a good shooter off the dribble. Basically, you can expect Trier to have as good a shot as anyone else to lead the Pac-12 in scoring, as he'll likely have a green light from Sean Miller to create offense after the Wildcats lose a large portion of their backcourt production. The question about Trier is simply what he can do beyond that. He hasn't shown a ton of desire to defend at this point, but his motor when scoring the basketball shows that he plays hard at least and could transfer that at some point. I've also never seen much in the way of him playing for others. He has good size and strength for a scorer, so the key will be for him to show that he can put those other aspects of his game together.
8. Daniel Hamilton
Sophomore, Connecticut
Measurables: 6-8, 198 pounds, 6-8 wingspan
Hamilton is an interesting draft prospect due to his scoring ability, size for the position and ability to rebound from the wing. First and foremost, Hamilton's a scorer. He can knock down shots from the outside and slash to get shots from the midrange and at the rim. He's also a really good playmaker for others, as he averaged nearly four assists per game as a freshman -- something that's hard to do for wings in today's college game. The problem last season for him was that once he got inside the arc, he couldn't do anything. Despite his size, he only made 55 percent of his shots around the rim, and was even worse from the midrange. He also needs to improve his defensive effort, as he has the athleticism to be a difference maker on that end and just doesn't quite get there often enough. He'll be in a better position this year to be the focal point of Connecticut's offense without Ryan Boatright in the mix, and that should lead to something of a breakout if he can start getting more efficient.
9. Dwayne Bacon
Freshman, Florida State
Measurables: 6-6, 210 pounds, 6-8 wingspan
Bacon's kind of a tough guy to project. On one hand, he's a big guy with explosive athleticism and a strong talent for getting into the lane and creating shots. He's a scorer, pure and simple. The key to making him a complete offensive scorer was adding a jump shot, and he seemed to really do that as a senior at Oak Hill Academy this year. That, plus his high-running motor, should make him one of the higher scoring players in the ACC this season even if Xavier Rathan-Mayes (a guy further down this list) will take some of those shots away from him. The key will be making efficient shots and not taking poor shots. On the other hand, even if Bacon is one-and-done, he'll be 21 before he plays a single game in the NBA, which does limit his upside a touch. He'll be a player to watch for sure this year at Florida State under Leonard Hamilton though, and could easily turn into a one-and-done if things broke right.
10. Ron Baker
Senior, Wichita State
Measurables: 6-4, 225 pounds, 6-8.5 wingspan
The guy who embodies coach Gregg Marshall's "Play Angry" moniker more than any other, Baker is a gritty, tough shotmaker who also could project well defensively. Imagine him as something of a potential Kirk Hinrich: a guy who coaches love to have around due to his high motor and intensity level as well as penchant for really playing hard-nosed defense. He also can run some point guard, which will provide him some versatility. This isn't someone who necessarily provides you with a ton of upside, but Baker has a good shot to play in the league for a while as, more than anything, it's hard to find shot makers who will also give you something defensively. If the league isn't too much of a burden for him athletically -- a question that won't be answered until he's drafted -- he'll play as a role player for a while.
Freshmen to watch: Tyler Dorsey, Oregon; Antonio Blakeney, LSU, Luke Kennard, Duke
Next 10: Diego Flaccadori, Italy (Trento); James Blackmon Jr., Indiana; Tim Quarterman, LSU; Grayson Allen, Duke; Malcolm Brogdon, Virginia; Xavier Rathan-Mayes, Florida State; E.C. Matthews, Rhode Island; Denzel Valentine, Michigan State; Zak Irvin, Michigan; Isaiah Whitehead, Seton Hall
