At this point, picking someone other than Clayton Kershaw -- a sure winner -- for NL MVP feels like playing devil's advocate. Or maybe even wasting time.
It's apparent Clayton Kershaw is going to be a runaway winner now. If he doesn't get all the first-place votes, he will get most of them. There's no way to say he's undeserving. But Giancarlo Stanton is deserving, too.
Stanton's brilliant season unfortunately was ended the moment he was struck in the face by a heater, which halted his stats and all the serious buzz around him -- as he almost singlehandedly kept the Marlins on the fringe of the race. While pitchers are eligible for the MVP award and have won it (though not often recently), precedent suggests it doesn't happen in years position players have exceptional seasons. And it shouldn't. In this case, two position players -- Stanton and Pirates star Andrew McCutchen -- had that kind of season.
Three points to consider regarding pitchers and the MVP:
Pitchers have their own award (Cy Young), which is the biggest reason hitters receive greater consideration for MVP, provided there are hitters having worthy seasons.
Hitters affect games daily. The batters-faced totals often are used to support starting pitchers and that makes some sense, but it isn't nearly as great an argument as some suggest. It's true starting pitchers -- Kershaw included -- often face as many or even more batters than hitters have plate appearances. But to compare those totals without noting that position players run bases and also field a position for up to 1,450 innings a year isn't fair.
Only Justin Verlander has won the MVP in the last couple decades (that's over 42 votes!), yet historically many pitchers who had dominant years were passed over, including Ron Guidry (second in MVP voting in 1978), Dwight Gooden (fourth in 1985), Pedro Martinez (second in 1999), Steve Carlton (fifth in 1972) and Sandy Koufax (second in 1966).
Pitchers win the award on occasion, of course. They took both MVP awards in 1968, the last great year for pitching, as Bob Gibson and Denny McLain put up numbers that could not be ignored. That's the way it seems for some with Kershaw this year. And when Kershaw wins he's not a bad choice, but the Dodgers ace had a similar season last year and finished seventh.
Through 27 starts, Kershaw had a 1.72 ERA in 2013, actually slightly better than his 1.77 this year. The big difference: Kershaw won at a much higher percentage this season, going 21-3 compared to 16-9 in '13, which while having something to do with good fortune is quite a reasonable consideration for MVP. Obviously, Kershaw helped the Dodgers win the NL West and Stanton, for all his exploits, didn't get the Marlins into the playoffs.
Without further ado, all my awards. ...
NL MVP
1. Marlins OF Giancarlo Stanton: His season is easily the best among position players despite the loss of the final three weeks to face-healing time. He led the NL in OPS, slugging percentage, home runs, total bases, intentional walks (of course!) and only missed by .1 in position player WAR to Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy. He kept the Marlins together after the loss of star righty Jose Fernandez, and Miami predictably hit the skids without Stanton, demonstrating his overall value.
2. Pirates OF Andrew McCutchen: The underrated superstar had as good a season as last year when he was MVP, and his spectacular numbers would have been even better had the Diamondbacks not taken revenge on him for Paul Goldschmidt's unfortunate HBP. As it is, he made it a third straight season with a .300/.400/.500 slash line.
3. Dodgers SP Clayton Kershaw: He'll win this award easily but it depends on one's aversion to giving the top pitcher both the biggest trophies (mine obviously is high). Like Stanton, he missed time but still managed to lead the league in wins and pitching WAR. He was also tops in ERA, WHIP and a million other categories. Understandably the heavy favorite.
4. Giants C Buster Posey: One of the better-hitting catchers ever had a typical season, one that ended nicely with a big final six weeks (.414 over that stretch).
5. Cardinals SP Adam Wainwright: He had 12 starts of at least seven innings with no runs allowed, a feat matched only by a few, as Tyler Kepner of the New York Times points out. Exceptional all-around year (save for one July night in Minneapolis).
6. Pirates INF-OF Josh Harrison: He didn't win the batting title, but he made the All-Star team and helped the Pirates by starring at several positions when they needed it most. Even McCutchen called Harrison the team MVP.
7. Nationals 3B Anthony Rendon: He emerged as a terrific two-way player. Had a 6.5 WAR, same as Stanton.
8. Brewers C Jonathan Lucroy: Clearly, it wasn't his fault the Brewers collapsed. Led the NL with a 6.6 WAR, no surprise for Brewers followers.
9. Dodgers 1B Adrian Gonzalez: I know RBI is a beaten-down stat and he didn't lead until after Stanton went down. Still, 116 is a nice total in this season of the pitcher.
10. Pirates C Russell Martin: He handled the Pirates' staff beautifully. Determined to hit for a higher average, he boosted his BA to a career high .290 (with an outstanding .402 on-base percentage). Yasiel Puig was very exciting and is a contender for a spot, as is Braves star Justin Upton.
NL LVP (Least Valuable Player): B.J. Upton, Braves OF. It's getting to be an annual award for him.
AL MVP
1. Angels OF Mike Trout: He didn't utilize his speed as he has in the past, and he struck out too much considering that speed, but he became an even more powerful force, and led the AL with 111 RBI. Even if he doesn't get sympathy points for barely missing out his first two years, he's the clear winner.
2. Blue Jays OF Jose Bautista: What a terrific all-around season for Joey Bats. That .403 on-base percentage and .928 OPS is mighty impressive in the pitcher-dominated year. Kept Toronto in it.
3. Indians OF Michael Brantley: If there were an award for most improved, he'd have that. Previously a solid player with potential, he hit .327 and posted a third-best 7.0 WAR.
4. Orioles OF Nelson Cruz: His late signing for $8 million was the best bargain of the year, and that was clear almost from the start. He reached 40 homers and 100-plus RBI (108 to be exact) for the first time, and should find free agency much more enjoyable this time.
5. Tigers DH Victor Martinez: He may have missed out on the batting title, but he led in on-base percentage and OPS. For a while it looked he might even have more home runs than strikeouts (he finished with 42 Ks, 32 homers).
6. Mariners 2B Robinson Cano: He did exactly what you want from a big-money free agent, performing as he had before he became one of baseball's richest stars, with diminished power numbers easily attributable to the stadium switch. The 6.3 WAR shows how valuable he was. Helped keep Seattle in the race until the last day.
7. White Sox 1B Jose Abreu: He put up huge numbers (37 HRs, 107 RBI, .317 BA, .963 slugging), to the point where some would say his was the best deal, considering the White Sox get to keep him seven more years.
8. Orioles OF Adam Jones: Exceptional two-way player helped the Orioles win despite the losses of Matt Wieters, Manny Machado, and eventually, Chris Davis.
9. Tigers 1B Miguel Cabrera: Even in an off year, he still had an .895 OPS.
10. A's 3B Josh Donaldson: Good power and exceptional defense led to that 7.5 WAR. I would have liked to have found a spot for Alex Gordon plus two players who had exceptional seasons for also-rans, Adrian Beltre and Jose Altuve.
AL LVP (Least Valuable): Chris Davis, Orioles 1B. He batted .196, then cost himself 25 games by testing positive for Adderall.
NL Cy Young
1. Dodgers SP Clayton Kershaw: He barely failed to lead the NL in strikeouts with 239, as Stephen Strasburg and Johnny Cueto passed him by three in their final starts. But otherwise, he was tops in just about everything but innings. Amazing pitcher.
2. Reds SP Johnny Cueto: In any other year, he or Wainwright might deserve it. Exceptional for start to finish.
3. Cardinals SP Adam Wainwright: Maybe the best never to win a Cy Young. Obviously, it's not his fault he's pitching during the Kershaw era. Stats nearly identical to Cueto (though a 0.96 WHIP gives Cueto the nod).
4. Giants SP Madison Bumgarner: Maybe the players knew something, voting him a spot on the All-Star team before he really deserved it. Big second half, lots of innings. And he can hit, too.
5. Dodgers SP Zack Greinke: Best No. 2 pitcher in baseball. Cole Hamels and Jordan Zimmerman also merit strong consideration.
NL Cy Old (Worst Pitcher): Phillies SP A.J. Burnett. After making $18 million to pitch poorly, Burnett said, "Money ain't everything." Well, technically, for him it pretty much was (though he did eke out a plus 0.2 WAR somehow). He won a Triple Crown of sorts, leading the NL in losses (18), earned runs (109) and walks (96). Good job by his agent Darek Braunecker, though, as Burnett will be up to $148 million in career earnings if he picks up his $12.75 million player option, which is almost exactly 25 times more than the $5.912 million Tom Seaver made (via Baseball Reference).
AL Cy Young
1. Mariners SP Felix Hernandez: In a virtual tossup, the King gets the nod based on slightly better WHIP and ERA (he actually got the ERA title with a nice last-day start) numbers, though it's hard to argue with Corey Kluber.
2. Indians SP Corey Kluber: His brilliant finish nearly pushed him into dead heat with Hernandez (though he actually led in WAR, at 7.5). How did he not make the All-Star team again?
3. White Sox SP Chris Sale: This guy needed to be voted onto the All-Star team by fans (good thing they had the sense). Probably the toughest guy to hit in the AL, though there are many.
4. Red Sox/A's SP Jon Lester: Even better in Oakland than he was in Boston, Lester should be in for a big free agency.
5. Tigers SP Max Scherzer: Like Lester, he should score big this winter after a year with 18-5 record, 1.10 WHIP and 6.1 WAR. Teammate David Price led the league in innings (248 1/3) and strikeouts (271), and won the key game at the end, which will get him some extra points.
AL Cy Old (Worst Pitcher): Twins SP Ricky Nolasco. There may have been a (slightly) worse starter, but none with a $49 million contract.
NL Rookie of the Year
1. Mets SP Jacob deGrom: Exceptional rookie season with 20 career-beginning starts that compare to legendary Mets Tom Seaver and Dwight Gooden. Should be the easy winner.
2. Reds CF Billy Hamilton: He stole 56 bases and played a nice center field, but that .648 OPS is below average, and the .292 on-base percentage needs improvement.
3. Phillies RP Ken Giles: Big reliever with big stuff represents another reason why it's time for Jonathan Papelbon to go.
4. Mets RP Jeurys Familia: The Mets remade the back end of their bullpen after Bobby Parnell went down, thanks to Familia and Jenrry Mejia. Big arm.
5. Giants 2B Joe Panik: He and the Cardinals 2B Kolten Wong will be in the playoffs. Panik was a revelation for San Francisco after Marco Scutaro went down and Dan Uggla played like he did in Atlanta, only worse, in a brief tryout.
AL Rookie of the Year
1. White Sox 1B Jose Abreu: Once Masahiro Tanaka was lost for a couple months, this became a fait accompli even in an exceptionally strong year for rookies in the AL.
2. Yankees SP Masahiro Tanaka: He was on his way to a brilliant campaign when felled by an elbow issue that kept him out until late September.
3. Yankees RP Dellin Betances: He was nearly unhittable a lot of times, and maybe the best reliever in baseball.
4. Astros SP Colin McHugh: Yes, Houston did have some bright spots, and McHugh found himself after tries with the Mets and Rockies.
5. Royals SP Yordano Ventura: Big stuff, and he lived up to advance billing. Angels RHP Matt Showmaker came out of nowhere to win 16 games and deserves strong consideration, as well.
NL Manager of the Year
1. Clint Hurdle, Pirates: The Pirates blew away the sliding Brewers late to claim a second straight playoff spot. Hurdle is much better his second time around.
2. Matt Williams, Nationals: He seemed to struggle early with a strong team but got them rolling late.
3. Mike Redmond, Marlins: He kept Miami alive until Stanton went down, which is a pretty remarkable achievement, even with an improved team. Deserved that extension through 2017 he just got. The Dodgers' Don Mattingly deserves a mention for dealing well with a lot of egos.
Worst Manager: Ron Roenicke, Brewers. Roenicke was actually excellent ... for three months. Hard to believe the Brewers finished 82-80. (Note: managers already fired are ineligible for this dishonor, as that would be piling on).
AL Manager of the Year
1. Buck Showalter, Orioles: He's been nothing short of brilliant since arriving in Baltimore, his fourth stop. Hey, the fourth time was the charm for Hall of Fame manager Joe Torre. In Showalter's case, he seems to have loosened up quite a bit. There never was a question about his smarts. (As Kepner pointed out, Showalter is an every-10-year wonder as he was also Manager of the Year in 1994 and 2004).
2. Mike Scioscia, Angels: A year ago, it looked like he and GM Jerry Dipoto wouldn't be able to co-exist but they thrived together in their year together. They were a juggernaut.
3. Lloyd McClendon, Mariners: Interesting he beats out the Tigers' Brad Ausmus here since McClendon was passed over by Detroit. (The Tigers will be OK, of course, as Ausmus also had an excellent start, and the Tigers won the AL Central).
Worst Manager: Joe Girardi, Yankees. He may need to explain why he called the team together after it was eliminated to chastise them for lacking hunger and in some cases being out of shape. Shouldn't that speech have come in May, long before the Farewell Tour ... I mean, the Yankees' season started.
AL GM of the Year
1. Jerry Dipoto, Angels: He rebuilt a pen like no one ever has, turning a liability into a great strength, plus he got two decent pitchers for Mark Trumbo and showed patience with Garrett Richards.
2. Dan Duquette, Orioles: The Cruz signing was brilliant, and other smaller moves (Steve Peace, Brad Brach) worked, too.
3. Dayton Moore, Royals: Without the James Shields trade, the Royals are home a 29th straight year. Terrific job all around.
Worst GM: Ben Cherington, Red Sox. Boston's bright young leader got top honors here last year, and deservedly so. But the gamble to go with kids Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Will Middlebrooks could not have gone worse following a year in which Cherington went 6 for 6 in free agency. Time to get back into the free agency game now.
NL GM of the the Year
1. Mike Rizzo, Nationals: Sure, it didn't hurt to have the No. 1 pick when Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper were on the board, but the Nats have otherwise drafted well (Anthony Rendon) and traded well (Doug Fister), forming maybe the soundest team around.
2. Ned Colletti, Dodgers: Of course the Dodgers have a lot of money to spend, but they've put it to good use, as no one can match their talent. The Kershaw contract may turn out to be a $215-million steal, by the way, and the $147 million Greinke deal isn't bad, either. It also helps that the scouting and development folks (Logan White plus DeJon Watson, who just left for Arizona) are stars, as well.
3. John Mozeliak, Cardinals: Boy, was I wrong about Jhonny Peralta. As if the Cardinals don't score enough with their drafts, they hit big with the Peralta deal for $53 million.
Worst GM: Ruben Amaro, Phillies. The Burnett deal wasn't a good one, though to be fair Marlon Byrd did fine and most of the bad deals came earlier. Since scouting director Marti Wolever took the bullet for the old, overpriced team's demise, Amaro's eligible.
