At age 22, Xander Bogaerts of the Red Sox has broken out as one of the top shortstops in the league this season. He leads qualified AL hitters in batting average and is hitting .324/.356/.427 (110 OPS+) overall with 10 home runs and much improved defense.
Bogaerts has racked up 4.6 WAR so far in 2015, which is special. Only 23 times in history has a shortstop age 22 or younger been worth 4.5+ WAR in a season, and nine of those 23 instances belong to Alex Rodriguez (three times) and Hall of Famers Cal Ripken Jr. (twice), Arky Vaughan (twice) and Roger Hornsby (twice). Bogaerts is No. 23.
Needless to say, getting Bogaerts signed to a long-term contract figures to be a priority for the Red Sox even though he won't be eligible for free agency until after the 2019 season. He plays a premium position and as soon as his power comes, Bogaerts will start to get mighty expensive. Now's the time to make an offer.
The problem? Bogaerts is represented by Scott Boras, who is known to drive a hard bargain and push his clients towards free agency as soon as possible. That doesn't mean Boras and Bogaerts won't listen to extension offers, however. Here's what Boras told WEEI.com's Rob Bradford earlier this week:
“Look, I always tell every team and every player, we’re an open door,” the agent said. “Anything they want to look at and offer, and then the player just has to make his judgments, so we evaluate that.
Boras added, “So I did all of these studies of him and even a great player like [Derek] Jeter, he was more home runs, more RBI, and he’s made more playing time in the big leagues at 22 than Jeter had. So when you’re talking about a player at that level, that great, to be ahead of him in many ways, you can really see where Xander and the organization in combination have worked hard to get him to that level, so it’s nice to see.”
It's worth noting several Boras clients have signed long-term extensions to forego free agency in recent years. Jered Weaver, Carlos Gonzalez and Elvis Andrus are the most notable.
Finding a common ground may be difficult for Bogaerts, Boras and the Red Sox given his age, ability and production. There aren't many players this young and this good. Courtesy of the MLB Trade Rumors Extension Tracker, here's a list of players who signed extensions at the same service time level (approximately two years) Bogaerts will reach at the end of the season:
| Players Who Signed Extensions With Two Years of Service Time | |||||
| Player | Age | Career WAR | Years | Dollars | Option Years? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Eaton | 25 | 5.9 | 5 | $23.5M | 2 |
| Matt Carpenter | 27 | 7.3 | 6 | $52M | 1 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 24 | 10.1 | 6 | $40.5M | 1 |
| Ian Kinsler | 25 | 6.0 | 5 | $22M | 1 |
| Bogaerts | 23 in Oct. | 5.3+ | ? | ? | ? |
That's the list of players who signed extensions with approximately two years of service time dating back to 2008. Eaton, Carpenter, Pedroia and Kinsler, all of whom were at least two years older than Bogaerts will be this offseason. That's it. Four players.
You can see why it figures to be mighty difficult for the Red Sox and Bogaerts' camp to find common ground. There simply aren't many comparable players out there, so they're starting from scratch. That said, the Red Sox did hammer out a deal with Pedroia in a similar situation back during the 2008-09 offseason, so they have experience doing this.
Bogaerts is set to earn something close to the league minimum in 2016 before his salary climbs through arbitration from 2017-19. Brandon Crawford received $3.175 million in his first trip through arbitration last offseason, and while he's a quality player, Bogaerts has put up better offensive numbers earlier in his career. He'll likely get more in his first arbitration year.
Given inflation and his performance, Bogaerts could be looking at salaries in the $4 millon, $8 million and $12 million ranges during his three arbitration years. His free agent years? Those'll be worth $20+ million easily if he keeps going at this rate. A five-year deal at $45 million or so would buy out on free agent year, cover my future salary guesstimates, and still allow Bogaerts to hit free agency right as he turns 27. Boras will like that.
There is no rush as far as the Red Sox are concerned. They have a ton of money and have Bogaerts for another four years, so they can get serious about an extension at any point. The only issue is that if he turns into the player they believe he can be, he'll get more expensive each passing year. Boras and Bogaerts are an "open door," so the Red Sox should try to get something done as soon as possible.
